466 
 WTNT43 KNHC 230232
 TCDAT3
 
 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032019
 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019
 
 The depression has become less organized this evening.  Much of the
 deep convection seen earlier in the day has dissipated, and the
 cyclone currently consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with some
 shower activity.  The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on
 the earlier ASCAT data.
 
 The system is moving northwestward at 9 kt, steered by the
 southwestern periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.  A turn to
 the north and north-northeast with a notable increase in forward
 speed is expected on Tuesday as the depression moves in the
 flow between the subtropical ridge and an approaching deep-layer
 trough moving across the eastern United States.  The NHC track
 forecast is similar to the previous one and keeps the center of the
 cyclone offshore of the east coast of Florida.  This prediction is
 near the multi-model consensus TVCN.
 
 Significant strengthening of the depression is not expected given
 its poor initial state and because it is forecast to move into a
 region of strong southwesterly flow aloft by late Tuesday.  In
 fact, the global and regional models all show the depression opening
 into a trough within the next 24 hours, with the remnants of the
 system becoming absorbed within a frontal zone off the southeast
 U.S. on Wednesday.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower
 than the previous one and now shows dissipation occurring sooner, by
 36 hours.
 
 Direct impacts from the depression are expected to be limited to 1
 to 3 inches of rainfall in the Bahamas and along the east coast of
 Florida.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/0300Z 26.1N  79.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  23/1200Z 28.4N  79.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  24/0000Z 31.7N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi