362 
 WTNT45 KNHC 251445
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011
 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
 
 AFTER BEING CLOSE TO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD PATTERN
 OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH A DECREASE IN
 CONVECTION AND CURVED BANDING. ALTHOUGH DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT
 STORM STRENGTH...AN ASCAT PASS AT 1126 UTC SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS
 OF 25 TO 30 KT...WHICH WAS LESS THAN WHAT WAS MEASURED ON THE LAST
 PASS.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL STAY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS
 ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY A
 FAVORABLE STRUCTURE FOR MUCH NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION.  IN
 ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODERATE TO
 STRONG TODAY.  THUS THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS
 ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM.  SOME INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY ON FRIDAY
 WITH LESS SHEAR WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS. 
 HOWEVER...THERE IS A BIG SPLIT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND
 STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
 STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS
 FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME HURRICANE.  WITH SUCH A LARGE
 SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
 BEYOND FRIDAY.  WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE BY DAY THREE DUE TO AN
 INCREASE IN SHEAR AND DECREASE IN SSTS.   
 
 AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH
 FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
 CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE
 NEXT FEW DAYS.  ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE HAS THIS GENERAL IDEA...THERE
 ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON HOW QUICKLY THE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION
 STARTS.  PART OF THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER
 DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM MORE
 LIKELY TO BE PULLED MORE TO THE NORTH THAN A WEAKER ONE.  THE NHC
 FORECAST WILL SHOW A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION BY DAY 3 AND ASSUMES
 THE CYCLONE GAINS SOME STRENGTH.  THE NEW FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT
 OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE DAY OR SO...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
 ECMWF MODEL AND THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM
 EXPERIMENTAL CONSENSUS.  MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A SHARPER LEFT
 TURN IN THE LONGER-RANGE PERIOD...SO THE TRACK AT THAT TIME IS WEST
 OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/1500Z 13.3N  31.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  26/0000Z 13.9N  32.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  26/1200Z 14.7N  34.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  27/0000Z 15.6N  35.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  27/1200Z 16.6N  35.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  28/1200Z 18.7N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  29/1200Z 20.5N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  30/1200Z 22.0N  40.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE