255 
 WTNT44 KNHC 282043
 TCDAT4
 
 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016
 
 Surface observations and aircraft data from earlier this afternoon
 indicate that the circulation of Matthew has continued to become
 better defined.  There has also been an increase in convection
 just northeast of the center.  The initial intensity remains 50 kt
 based on the earlier aircraft data.  The next Air Force Reserve
 Hurricane Hunter mission into Matthew is scheduled for this evening.
 Although the increase in convection suggests that the system may be
 trying to establish an inner core, recent microwave and radar data
 have not revealed a significant increase in organization or banding
 so far.  The aircraft also did not report any pressure fall during
 its mission. Based on these trends, little change in intensity is
 predicted in the short-range, but warm waters and low shear are
 expected to allow for steady strengthening while Matthew moves over
 the eastern and central Caribbean during the next few days.  The
 updated NHC intensity forecast is a little below the intensity
 consensus through 24 hours, but is close to the consensus and the
 statistical models after that time.
 
 Matthew is moving westward to west-northwestward at about 16 kt.
 The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous
 advisory.  The tropical cyclone should move generally westward
 during the next 2 to 3 days to the south of a strong deep-layer
 ridge over the western Atlantic.  The new NHC track forecast has
 been nudged northward through 72 hours, to be closer to the new
 model consensus.  After day 3, Matthew is expected to turn
 northwestward as it nears the western portion of the ridge.  The
 overall track envelope has shifted slightly eastward at days 4 and
 5, and the NHC track has been adjusted accordingly.  It should
 be noted that are still significant differences among the models in
 how soon and how sharply Matthew turns northwestward and northward
 late in the forecast period.  Users are reminded that the average
 NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240
 miles, respectively.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/2100Z 13.8N  62.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  29/0600Z 14.1N  64.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  29/1800Z 14.4N  67.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  30/0600Z 14.4N  69.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  30/1800Z 14.1N  71.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  01/1800Z 14.2N  73.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  02/1800Z 15.8N  75.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  03/1800Z 19.0N  76.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown