523 
 WTNT45 KNHC 150845
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013
 500 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013
 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 FIVE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.  A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS
 COLDER THAN -80C HAS FORMED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER...AND
 THERE IS OUTER BANDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM
 STRENGTH...SO THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A 30-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON THE
 SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND
 THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL STEER THE
 CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE
 GUIDANCE DIVERGES.  THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
 CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TURNING WESTWARD.  THE ECMWF...THE
 UKMET...AND THE GFDL SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
 MOTION...WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
 OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
 SHOWN A NORTHWARD SHIFT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  SINCE THE CYCLONE
 IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING
 THIS TIME...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A WESTWARD TURN IN BEST
 AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.  WHILE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE
 NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 48 HR...IT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH
 OF THE ECMWF...THE UKMET...THE GFDL...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME
 STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 48 HR OR
 SO.  WHILE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LEAVE THE COOLER WATERS AFTER
 THAT TIME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
 IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER VERY DRY AIR AND WEAKEN...WITH THESE MODELS
 SHOWING THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING TO A TROPICAL WAVE BY 120 HR.  THE
 NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT YET FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO...AS THE
 SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A STEADY-STATE OR STRENGTHENING SYSTEM. 
 INSTEAD...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING AS A COMPROMISE
 BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/0900Z 14.4N  25.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 15.0N  27.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  16/0600Z 15.7N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  16/1800Z 16.4N  32.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  17/0600Z 17.2N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  18/0600Z 18.0N  39.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  19/0600Z 18.0N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  20/0600Z 18.0N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN