818 
 WTNT41 KNHC 270900
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005
  
 AS OFTEN OCCURS AS A DEPRESSION EVOLVES INTO A TROPICAL STORM... THE
 OUTER BANDS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE DISSIPATED WHILE BURSTS OF DEEP
 CONVECTION HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT...AND THEY ARE
 ONLY THAT LOW DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.  THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
 APPEARS TO CORRESPOND TO AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM...BUT THE WINDS
 HAVE PROBABLY NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CLOUD SIGNATURE.  THE
 DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS...
 MAKING BETA THE RECORD-SETTING 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005
 SEASON.
  
 THE SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 5 KT IS BEING PROVIDED BY
 WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... IN BETWEEN A LARGE AND DEEP LAYER
 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED A DISTANT 2000 N MI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
 THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
 THE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ENOUGH RIDGING TO
 DEVELOP IN PLACE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO
 EVENTUALLY TURN BETA WESTWARD INTO NICARAGUA...BUT THERE IS
 SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR.  OVERALL THE
 MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND NONE
 OF THEM BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ALONG THE SAME PATH OF THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY...BUT SLOWED DOWN TO NUDGE TOWARD THE GUIDANCE.
  
 OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
 STRENGTHENING... WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 29 CELSIUS
 AND VERY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETA COULD BE
 NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS IF IT HAS NOT YET MADE
 LANDFALL... AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON SHIPS
 INDICATES NEARLY A 50/50 SHOT AT 25 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE
 FIRST 24 HOURS.  THE GFDL FORECASTS EVEN MORE INTENSIFICATION...TO
 HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 HOURS.  SINCE THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST KEEPS BETA OVER WATER LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY...AND GIVEN THE VERY BULLISH GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND ANTICIPATES A HURRICANE
 BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL ON THE NICARAGUAN COAST.  FURTHER... SINCE
 THE 36 HOUR FORECAST IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... IT IS CERTAINLY
 POSSIBLE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS IN
 THE AREAS ALREADY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  HOWEVER...WE HAVE
 NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT NICARAGUA REGARDING THE ISSUANCE OF A
 HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
  
  
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/0900Z 11.4N  81.8W    35 KT
  12HR VT     27/1800Z 11.8N  82.2W    45 KT
  24HR VT     28/0600Z 12.5N  82.6W    55 KT
  36HR VT     28/1800Z 12.8N  83.0W    60 KT
  48HR VT     29/0600Z 13.0N  83.6W    65 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     30/0600Z 13.0N  85.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$