734 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 111540
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007
 900 AM PDT MON JUN 11 2007
  
 EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
 PERSISTING CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
 BEEN MONITORED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  A 1302 UTC QUIKSCAT
 PASS AND AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS
 BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND
 THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 KT.  BASED ON THE ABOVE
 INFORMATION...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 THREE-E.   
 
 ALLOWING FOR SOME REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE INITIAL
 MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/08.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING
 STEERED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
 JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
 GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING A
 RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 36 TO 48
 HOURS.  AT THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
 MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND DISSIPATE IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS AS A
 RESULT OF COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  
 
 THE DEPRESSION HAS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
 AS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CLOSELY
 FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/1600Z 15.7N 110.7W    30 KT
  12HR VT     12/0000Z 16.2N 111.6W    35 KT
  24HR VT     12/1200Z 17.1N 112.8W    35 KT
  36HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N 114.1W    30 KT
  48HR VT     13/1200Z 17.7N 115.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     14/1200Z 17.5N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI