684 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 212031
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009
 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009
 
 SPIRAL BANDING HAS INCREASED DURING THE DAY AROUND THE AREA OF LOW
 PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS
 TO HAVE BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS
 A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.0 AND
 2.5...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.
 THIS INTENSITY IS CORROBORATED BY A COUPLE OF RECENT SHIP REPORTS
 IN THE AREA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ALONG THE
 FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL
 PROJECTS THAT EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
 WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HWRF MODEL IS MORE
 AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFDL IN STRENGTHENING THE CYCLONE. CURIOUSLY...
 THIS IS THE REVERSE OF WHAT WAS INDICATED BY THE MODEL RUNS FROM 12
 HOURS EARLIER. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 SHOWS ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND DOES NOT BRING THE CYCLONE
 TO HURRICANE STATUS. WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR BY DAYS 4 AND 5 ONCE
 THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER COOLER WATERS.
  
 NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM PARTICULARLY
 WELL...AND THIS IS LIKELY AFFECTING THEIR RESPECTIVE FORECAST
 TRACKS. THE UKMET AND ECMWF MOVE THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD TOWARDS
 THE MEXICAN COAST...BUT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD.
 THE GFDL SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
 HOURS...BUT THIS ALSO DOES NOT SEEM CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM'S
 CURRENT MOTION. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK RELIES ON
 EXTRAPOLATION AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO...THEN
 COMES MORE IN LINE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...AND
 UKMET. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
 WESTWARD OVER MEXICO AND STEER THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD
 COURSE AWAY FROM LAND.
 
 DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
 SO...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
 COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE REGION
 SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO THE
 HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/2100Z 14.7N 101.7W    30 KT
  12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.8N 102.2W    40 KT
  24HR VT     22/1800Z 15.2N 102.8W    50 KT
  36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.8N 103.4W    55 KT
  48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.9N 104.2W    60 KT
  72HR VT     24/1800Z 19.5N 107.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     25/1800Z 21.0N 111.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     26/1800Z 21.0N 116.0W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG/PASCH