147 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 180231
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
 900 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016
 
 The broad area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring for
 several days south of Mexico has finally acquired enough
 organization to be classified as a tropical depression with an
 initial intensity of 30 kt.  Microwave data during the day showed
 several swirls rotating around the larger circulation, but during
 the past couple of hours, satellite images show that a well defined
 center became embedded within the convection, and it is the one NHC
 is currently tracking.
 
 The shear is forecast to be light for the next day or so, allowing
 the depression to intensify some. After 48 hours, both an increase
 of shear and an encounter with cooler waters should result in
 weakening as indicated in the NHC forecast.
 
 The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest
 or 305 degrees at 14 kt. The depression is being steered by a
 strong subtropical high over northern Mexico. In about 36 hours,
 the depression will reach the southwestern edge of the high, and
 will likely turn northward with a decrease in forward speed. The
 NHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model consensus TVCN.
 This track keeps the cyclone well removed from the southwest coast
 of Mexico.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/0300Z 16.7N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  19/0000Z 19.5N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  19/1200Z 21.2N 116.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  20/0000Z 23.0N 118.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  21/0000Z 26.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  22/0000Z 28.0N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  23/0000Z 29.5N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila