868 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 021446
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014
 
 The area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest
 of Manzanillo now has enough organized convection to be considered a
 tropical cyclone.  Although moderate northeasterly shear is present,
 banding features are in the southern semicircle of the cyclone along
 with bursts of convection near the center.  The initial wind speed
 is set to 35 kt in accordance with earlier ASCAT data.
 
 Norbert has been moving toward the north-northeast or 020/12.
 Almost all of the guidance show Norbert turning sharply northward
 and west-northwestward within 24 hours due to the cyclone leaving
 the ITCZ and becoming steered by a mid-level high over Mexico.  The
 NHC prediction during this time is on the right side of the guidance
 envelope, mostly because of the initial motion.  After that time,
 there is some uncertainty in the strength of the ridge over
 northwestern Mexico, which causes some spread in the model tracks of
 Norbert while it approaches the southern Baja California peninsula.
 While the NHC forecast is close to the model consensus after 24
 hours, it would not be surprising to see later forecasts be
 adjusted a bit to the north at longer range, given model trends.
 
 The environment near Norbert seems mostly favorable for
 strengthening during the next few days with the cyclone forecast
 over warm waters with moderate shear.  Given this environment, it
 is a little surprising that none of the more reliable models makes
 Norbert a hurricane.  Since there is some possibility of land
 interaction and higher shear, the NHC prediction will be a little
 above the model consensus, but below the highest guidance.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/1500Z 17.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  03/0000Z 18.6N 107.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  03/1200Z 19.3N 108.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  04/0000Z 19.6N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  04/1200Z 20.1N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  05/1200Z 21.8N 112.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  06/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  07/1200Z 23.5N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake