191 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 150238
 TCDEP4
 
 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   1
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018
 
 The area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure area that
 the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has acquired enough
 organized deep convection for the system to be declared a tropical
 depression. Although the convection had waned a little during the
 day, recent satellite imagery indicates that convection near the
 well-defined center has begun to increase and that outer banding
 features in the western semicircle have been improving during the
 past few hours. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a Dvorak
 satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 265/12 kt. For the next 72 hours, the
 tropical cyclone is forecast to move westward or slightly south of
 due west along the southern periphery of a broad deep-layer ridge
 that is located to the north of the depression. The ridge is
 expected to weaken by 96 hours as a mid-latitude low/trough
 currently located off the coast of southern California digs
 southward and then westward during the forecast period. This
 pattern should allow the cyclone to move west-northward into the
 weakness in the ridge and start gaining latitude. For this initial
 forecast of the system, the NHC track lies close to a blend of the
 consensus track models HCCA and TVCE.
 
 The vertical wind shear is forecast to remain around 10 kt or less
 for the next 72 hours or so, with a further decrease on days 4 and 5
 when the system moves underneath and/or develops an upper-level
 anticyclone, conditions that typically favor significant
 intensification. However, since the circulation envelope is
 currently elongated northeast-to-southwest, it will take a couple of
 days for the system to become more symmetrical, which could then
 enhance the strengthening process. By that time, however, sea-
 surface temperatures and mid-level humidity values will be marginal
 for significant intensification to occur. As a result, only slow but
 steady strengthening is indicated in this first intensity forecast,
 which closely follows the HCCA intensity consensus model.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/0300Z 10.9N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  15/1200Z 10.8N 122.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  16/0000Z 10.7N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  16/1200Z 10.8N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  17/0000Z 11.0N 129.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  18/0000Z 12.0N 134.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  19/0000Z 13.8N 138.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  20/0000Z 15.6N 142.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart