341 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 300419
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 1000 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006
  
 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED
 ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
 CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING
 SOME EASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE
 EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION.  MOST OF THE
 GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL RELAX A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT
 COUPLE DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN.
 TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEARING THE 26C
 ISOTHERM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING.  
  
 GIVEN THE LACK OF AN WELL-DEFINED CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY...THE
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/4.  GLOBAL MODELS
 SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
 FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS WITH
 HURRICANE JOHN COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.  ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL OF
 THE MODELS HAVE LITTLE OR NO REPRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE BEYOND 48
 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
 NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IN LINE
 WITH THE DEEP BAM MODEL.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
 JOHN...GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0500Z 16.2N 114.2W    25 KT
  12HR VT     30/1200Z 16.4N 114.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     31/0000Z 16.9N 115.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     31/1200Z 17.4N 115.6W    45 KT
  48HR VT     01/0000Z 17.9N 116.3W    45 KT
  72HR VT     02/0000Z 18.8N 117.9W    40 KT
  96HR VT     03/0000Z 19.5N 119.5W    40 KT
 120HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 121.0W    40 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN