770 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 262032
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
 300 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015
 
 The area of low pressure located well to the southwest of the coast
 of Mexico has become sufficiently well organized to be classified
 as a tropical depression.  Dvorak classifications were T2.0/30 kt
 from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB at 1800 UTC, and the initial
 intensity is therefore set at 25 kt.  The environment ahead of the
 depression is characterized by low shear, very warm waters, and a
 moist atmosphere, so strengthening appears likely throughout the
 forecast period.  In fact, some of the intensity models are quite
 aggressive.  Both the SHIPS and LGEM models strengthen the cyclone
 to category 3 or 4 intensity in five days, and the GFS deepens the
 system to a central pressure that typically equates to a category 3
 hurricane.  Therefore, the official forecast shows steady
 intensification, with the cyclone reaching major hurricane strength
 by day 5.  This forecast is slightly below the IVCN intensity
 consensus.
 
 The center has been somewhat difficult to locate, but the overall
 system has been moving quickly westward with a motion estimate of
 280/17 kt.  The depression is located to the south of a strong
 mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the adjacent
 Pacific waters.  This ridge should continue steering the cyclone
 westward--with a gradual decrease in forward speed--through day 4.
 A breakdown of the ridge by day 5 could then support a
 west-northwestward motion at the end of the forecast period.  The
 track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the
 official forecast is relatively close the model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/2100Z 10.8N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  27/0600Z 11.5N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  27/1800Z 12.0N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  28/0600Z 12.3N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  28/1800Z 12.4N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  29/1800Z 12.4N 126.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  30/1800Z 13.0N 130.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  31/1800Z 14.5N 134.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg