444 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 131435
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008
 800 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2008
  
 NIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLUS A 13/1017Z
 TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS...INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
 LOCATED ABOUT 185 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
 BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION TEN-E. CURVED BANDING NOTED IN THE TRMM OVERPASS
 SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM
 STRENGTH...BUT THE RAPID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION MAY NOT HAVE
 TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/09 KT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10-E
 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
 DIRECTION AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE
 SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LAST GFDL MODEL RUN
 APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER BACK TAKING THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD
 TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL SUITE
 TAKES THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 TRACK IS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE IN ANTICIPATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLY
 WEAKENING THE CYCLONE IN THE LATER PERIODS...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
 SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.
 
 ALTHOUGH THE OVERNIGHT BURST OF CONVECTION WAS IMPRESSIVE AND
 HELPED TO QUICKLY SPIN UP THE WIND FIELD...THIS DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
 MAY BE SHORT-LIVED. THE CONVECTIVE BURST MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE
 TO THE DIVERGENT REGION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM
 MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
 AND DERIVED WIND FIELDS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE NOSE OF THE 40-50 KT
 UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE FROM THE
 NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
 INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. FOR THIS
 REASON...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH DAY 2 WITH
 GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTERWARD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
 COOLER WATER.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/1500Z 16.3N 105.8W    30 KT
  12HR VT     14/0000Z 16.7N 107.2W    35 KT
  24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.3N 109.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.7N 110.4W    45 KT
  48HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 111.9W    45 KT
  72HR VT     16/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W    45 KT
  96HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N 116.0W    40 KT
 120HR VT     18/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN