864 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 221455
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112009
 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009
  
 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
 THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS MAINTAINED A VIGOROUS CIRCULATION DURING
 THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH PULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION COINCIDING WITH
 THE DIURNAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM.  HOWEVER...MORE RECENTLY A DEEP
 CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS PERSISTED FOR SOME TIME OVER THE WESTERN
 SEMICIRCLE...EVEN PARTIALLY COVERING WHAT WAS EARLIER AN EXPOSED
 CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...AN EXPANDING CIRRUS CANOPY IS
 EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTIVE OF A BETTER ESTABLISHED
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
 AND THERE HAS BEEN A FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THIS SYSTEM
 CAN NOW BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. BASED UPON DVORAK
 T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 2.0 AND AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT
 PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
 DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON
 A GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND 72 HOURS
 AND BEYOND...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NORTH OF HAWAII SHOULD
 LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE
 EASTERN PACIFIC.  THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT
 TO MOVE ON A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT BY SHOWING A SLOWER-MOVING CYCLONE TOWARD THE
 END OF THE PERIOD.  ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
 PASS 140W AND ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
 RESPONSIBILITY IN APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS.
  
 THE DEPRESSION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR
 ENVIRONMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  EVEN THOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
 SUFFICIENTLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
 TO HAMPER DEVELOPMENT AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
 INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THERE IS SOME
 INDICATION THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE...WHICH COULD LEAVE SOME
 OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 CONSERVATIVE AND INCREASES THE INTENSITY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...IN BEST
 AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ICON AND LGEM.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/1500Z 13.6N 136.9W    30 KT
  12HR VT     23/0000Z 13.7N 138.1W    30 KT
  24HR VT     23/1200Z 14.1N 139.6W    35 KT
  36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.6N 141.2W    35 KT
  48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.0N 142.9W    40 KT
  72HR VT     25/1200Z 15.5N 146.0W    45 KT
  96HR VT     26/1200Z 15.5N 149.0W    50 KT
 120HR VT     27/1200Z 15.5N 151.5W    60 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA/READ