389 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 300235
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
 800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015
 
 Satellite imagery and reports from NOAA buoy 51307 indicate that
 the large low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of
 the Baja California has a closed circulation and sufficient
 convection to be considered a tropical depression.  Thus, advisories
 are being initiated on Tropical Depression Nine-E.  The initial
 intensity is set at 30 kt, which could be conservative given the
 current convective organization.
 
 The initial motion is 280/13.  For the next three days or so, a
 strong low- to mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should steer it
 generally west-northwestward, and the forecast track is in the
 center of the guidance envelope during this period.  From 72-120
 hours, the dynamical models suggest a mid- to upper-level trough
 should weaken the ridge to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
 The guidance becomes somewhat divergent during this time, with the
 GFS and ECMWF models showing a more northward motion, while the
 Canadian, UKMET, HWRF, and NAVGEM models show a continued
 west-northwestward motion.  The track forecast follows the GFS/ECMWF
 solutions in calling for a turn toward the northwest and a decrease
 in forward speed.
 
 The depression is over warm sea surface temperatures and is expected
 to remain in a moist environment with light vertical wind shear for
 the next 72 hours or so.  This should allow for steady
 strengthening, and the forecast follows the intensity consensus in
 calling for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 hours and a
 hurricane in about 48 hours.  After 72 hours, a combination of
 decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track and
 westerly shear is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/0300Z  8.2N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  30/1200Z  8.9N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  31/0000Z  9.9N 130.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  31/1200Z 10.9N 133.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  01/0000Z 12.0N 136.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  02/0000Z 13.5N 141.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  03/0000Z 15.5N 145.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  04/0000Z 17.5N 146.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven