437 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 301458
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014
 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014
 
 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the low
 pressure area offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico has
 become better organized overnight.  First-light visible imagery
 shows a partially exposed low-level center of circulation on the
 northwestern edge of a deep convective cloud mass due to strong
 northwesterly vertical wind shear.  In addition, ship A8ER9, the Zim
 Savannah, reported 50-knot winds somewhat above 10 meters at 0900
 UTC in the northwestern quadrant, and then reported 42 kt at 1200
 UTC in the southeastern quadrant after it passed through the center.
 Based primarily on the aforementioned ship data, the initial
 intensity estimate is set at 45 kt.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 310/10.  Elida should move
 northwestward today, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico,
 in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge extending
 southwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. However, the forward motion
 of the storm should markedly decrease after that once the cyclone
 reaches a col area, with a west-southwestward or southwestward drift
 shown by global models in a day or two. The subtropical ridge is
 forecast to rebuild to the north of Elida later in the forecast
 period, which should allow for Elida to move westward away from the
 coast at a faster forward speed.  The NHC track forecast is close to
 the multi-model consensus TVCE but not as fast as the ECMWF by day
 5.
 
 Although the sea surface temperatures are very high along the track
 of Elida, strong upper-level northwesterly winds associated with an
 upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should inhibit
 significant intensification during the next few days.  After about
 72 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease, but by then the cyclone
 should be embedded in a somewhat drier and more stable
 environment. The NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model
 consensus IVCN.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/1500Z 17.3N 103.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  01/0000Z 17.9N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  01/1200Z 18.2N 104.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  02/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  02/1200Z 17.9N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  03/1200Z 17.8N 105.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  04/1200Z 17.6N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  05/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain