547 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 270832
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
 200 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008
  
 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR A FEW DAYS HAS
 DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A FAIRLY
 WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND WITH AN ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
 OUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK
 SCALE.  SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE
 SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME
 SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A
 TROPICAL STORM IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. BEYOND 3
 DAYS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
 COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES.  IN GENERAL...NUMERICAL
 MODELS SUGGEST EITHER WEAKENING OR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE
 OF THE CYCLONE.  
 
 THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.
 THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR A DAY
 OR SO. THEN...IT COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AS A STRONGER MIDDLE-
 LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION
 OF TRACK GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/0900Z 12.0N 108.8W    25 KT
  12HR VT     27/1800Z 12.4N 109.7W    30 KT
  24HR VT     28/0600Z 12.7N 111.0W    35 KT
  36HR VT     28/1800Z 13.0N 113.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     29/0600Z 13.5N 115.0W    35 KT
  72HR VT     30/0600Z 13.5N 118.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     01/0600Z 13.5N 122.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     02/0600Z 13.5N 126.0W    25 KT
  
 $$
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