038 
 WTPA41 PHFO 071459
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 500 AM HST THU JAN 07 2016
  
 THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR
 SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE AREA OF
 RESPONSIBILITY HAVE PERSISTED SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO CLASSIFY THE
 SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS LOW-LATITUDE OUT-OF-SEASON SYSTEM
 HAS TAPPED INTO SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF THE LOW-LEVEL
 WINDS...WITH AN EL-NINO RELATED WESTERLY WIND BURST SOUTH OF THE
 SYSTEM...AND PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO THE NORTH PROVIDING
 THE LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. SUBJECTIVE
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5/25 KT FROM PHFO/SAB TO
 2.0/30 KT FROM PGTW...AND THE INTENSITY FOR THIS INITIAL ADVISORY IS
 ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT. 
 
 THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW...HAS BEEN
 DRIFTING GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND THE
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 350/04 KT. TRACK
 GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO FAIRLY DISTINCT CAMPS...WITH THE
 DIFFERENCES MOST SIGNIFICANT AFTER 72 HOURS. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
 THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
 DAYS...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
 NORTHWEST. AFTER THIS TIME...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD
 WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
 RIDGE IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
 TROUGH FIRST INDUCES A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THEN AN EAST
 TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL/TVCN SOLUTIONS. THE
 ECMWF/NAVGEM/CMC ON THE OTHER HAND DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH...AND
 MAINTAIN A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE IS
 STEERED BY THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE
 TO THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE AND TVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH 72
 HOURS...AND THEN FAVORS THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE
 GFS/HWRF/GFDL/TVCN...FORECASTING A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND
 SOUTHEAST.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS IVCN AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...
 ANTICIPATING A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE
 NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL DAYS 4 AND 5. DESPITE THE
 SEASON...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO
 SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS EXPECTED
 TO BE INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
 RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT IN WHICH THE
 CYCLONE MAY BECOME EMBEDDED. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/1500Z  4.0N 171.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  08/0000Z  4.8N 171.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  08/1200Z  5.7N 172.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  09/0000Z  6.6N 172.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  09/1200Z  7.0N 173.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  10/1200Z  7.5N 173.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  11/1200Z  7.5N 172.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  12/1200Z  7.0N 171.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD