231 
 WTPA41 PHFO 202053
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 AM HST THU AUG 20 2015
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF
 THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT PERSISTENT DEEP
 CONVECTION AROUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION THREE-C. THIS IS THE SIXTH TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
 CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN FOR THE 2015 SEASON. DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES FROM THE FIX AGENCIES CAME IN AT 30 KT FROM PHFO AND
 SAB...AND 25 KT FROM JTWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 30 KT FOR
 THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT 280/14 KT. THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE
 CENTER POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS MAKES THIS MOVEMENT
 UNCERTAIN. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE TIGHTLY LINED UP WITH A GENERAL
 WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH TWO DAYS AS THREE-C MOVES
 SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...
 A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
 A SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR
 NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL AIDS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF
 THE TURN WITH THE HWRF AND GFS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND
 THE ECMWF ON THE WEST SIDE. THE TIMING OF THE TURN WILL DEPEND
 GREATLY ON WHEN THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OCCURS. THE LONGER IT
 TAKES...THE FARTHER WEST THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE BEFORE MAKING THE
 TURN AND THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST CONTAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF
 UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS
 THROUGH THE PACKAGE WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPROACHING
 THE WEST SIDE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN FIVE DAYS. 
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATER...OVER
 29C...BASED ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
 EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE SYSTEM BASED ON THE FLATTENING OF THE
 HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE EAST SIDE AND THE CIMSS 1800 UTC SHEAR
 ANALYSIS SHOWING MORE THAN 20 KT. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
 DECREASE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES
 UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE WEAKENING SHEAR AND
 THE VERY WARM WATERS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT. THE
 SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION PARAMETER ALSO SHOWS A 47 PERCENT
 PROBABILITY FOR THE 25 KT THRESHOLD. THUS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
 THREE-C TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A
 HURRICANE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
 ISLANDS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE IVCN CONSENSUS.
 
 U.S AIR FORCE RESERVE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS ARE IN THE
 PROCESS OF DEPLOYING TO HAWAII AND A WC-130J IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN
 INITIAL PASS THROUGH THREE-C FRIDAY EVENING.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  20/2100Z 11.0N 150.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  21/0600Z 12.1N 152.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  21/1800Z 12.9N 154.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  22/0600Z 13.7N 158.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  22/1800Z 14.9N 160.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  23/1800Z 17.4N 163.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  24/1800Z 19.6N 163.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  25/1800Z 21.0N 162.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA