072 
 WTNT41 KNHC 302029
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 4 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME
 MORE CONSOLIDATED.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED...AND SHIP
 REPORTS AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD IS STILL
 SOMEWHAT BROAD.  HOWEVER MICROWAVE DATA AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES
 FROM THE FSU/PSU WEB PAGE SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WARM CORE.
 THUS THE CYCLONE HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO JUSTIFY THE
 ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.  THE STORM IS
 OVER RATHER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
 SHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS.  THEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE SYSTEM
 SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN LATER IN THE PERIOD.
  
 CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWARD AROUND 4 KT.  DYNAMICAL
 GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD
 CAUSE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION TO DEVELOP SOON.  THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS AND
 SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/2100Z 31.8N  51.0W    40 KT
  12HR VT     01/0600Z 32.2N  50.7W    40 KT
  24HR VT     01/1800Z 32.0N  50.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     02/0600Z 31.5N  49.3W    40 KT
  48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N  48.5W    40 KT
  72HR VT     03/1800Z 31.0N  46.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     04/1800Z 31.0N  45.0W    25 KT
 120HR VT     05/1800Z 31.0N  43.0W    20 KT
  
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