250 
 WTNT43 KNHC 061446
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132008
 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2008
  
 HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD
 PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
 OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...INDICATING
 THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT
 PASS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE AT TROPICAL STORM
 STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.  WATER VAPOR
 IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF
 UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH DEVELOPING OUTFLOW. 
 ADDITIONALLY...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE QUITE WARM. 
 ACCORDINGLY...SOME STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO THE
 CYCLONE REACHING LAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  ONCE INLAND OVER THE HIGH
 TERRAIN OF MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE CYCLONE
 WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. 
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
 280/7.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
 SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH
 LANDFALL.     
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/1500Z 19.0N  94.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     07/0000Z 19.4N  95.3W    35 KT
  24HR VT     07/1200Z 19.6N  96.4W    40 KT
  36HR VT     08/0000Z 19.7N  97.4W    25 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
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