455 
 WTNT44 KNHC 022029
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004
  
 METEOSAT-8 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
 VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. 
 THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...28 TO 29
 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR...ALTHOUGH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR MAY AFFECT THE SYSTEM
 ON DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT
 TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA...AND IS EXPECTED TO
 REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SINCE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
 IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE...A CONSISTENT FORWARD SPEED OF 15 TO 17 KNOTS IS FORECAST.
  
 FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/2100Z  9.7N  29.1W    25 KT
  12HR VT     03/0600Z  9.7N  31.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     03/1800Z 10.0N  35.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     04/0600Z 10.3N  38.2W    45 KT
  48HR VT     04/1800Z 10.8N  41.5W    50 KT
  72HR VT     05/1800Z 12.0N  48.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     06/1800Z 12.9N  54.0W    70 KT
 120HR VT     07/1800Z 14.0N  60.0W    70 KT
  
  
 $$