001 
 WTNT45 KNHC 032033
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY HAS SHOWN THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
 AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
 EXPOSED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
 CONVECTION.  RECENT REPORTS OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
 HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED
 ENOUGH FOR THE LOW TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE
 AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 36 KT AND A
 MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/5.  THE DEPRESSION IS
 ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
 PLAINS...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD
 EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
 GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND
 WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN THIS AREA...WITH THE GFS AND
 UKMET AIMING AT WESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL
 GUIDANCE AIMING AT TEXAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
 MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN
 36-48 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.
  
 THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WHICH HAS GIVEN THE SYSTEM A RAGGED
 APPEARANCE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH
 AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
 INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH 50-55 KT WINDS IN
 AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST
 GFDL CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
 LANDFALL... WHICH IS A SHARP CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS RUNS.  DUE TO
 THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET
 REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
  
 TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
 LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST ON THIS ADVISORY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/2100Z 28.2N  88.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N  89.4W    35 KT
  24HR VT     04/1800Z 28.4N  91.5W    40 KT
  36HR VT     05/0600Z 28.9N  93.8W    50 KT
  48HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N  96.2W    40 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN