620 
 WTNT41 KNHC 270245
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005
 
 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
 DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND COULD BE
 ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI FROM THE GIVEN POSITION. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
 INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED AT 315/03. 
 
 THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
 THE NORTH AND ONLY A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE COAST OF
 NICARAGUA IS ANTICIPATED. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE
 WILL NEVER GET OUT THAT AREA BEFORE DISSIPATION INLAND OVER CENTRAL
 AMERICA. THIS IS VERY REALISTIC SOLUTION.  HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOTION
 OVER WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
 AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
 FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF
 NICARAGUA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL
 WHICH MAKES THE DEPRESSION A 94-KNOT HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. 
 
 TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER SAN ANDRES AND
 PROVIDENCIA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. WE WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL IN
 CONTACTING THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE TO COORDINATE THE
 WARNINGS.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/0300Z 11.1N  81.5W    30 KT
  12HR VT     27/1200Z 11.5N  82.0W    35 KT
  24HR VT     28/0000Z 12.5N  82.5W    40 KT
  36HR VT     28/1200Z 13.0N  83.0W    50 KT
  48HR VT     29/0000Z 13.0N  84.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     30/0000Z 13.0N  85.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
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