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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
367
FXHW60 PHFO 220630
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE LAND
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT WHILE ONSHORE SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL CLEAR
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT MAY RETURN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO
RETURN BEGINNING THURSDAY. TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE STAYS NORTH OF THE STATE. AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE
ISLANDS ARE SLOWLY CLEARING SOMEWHAT AS THE LAND COOLS THIS EVENING.
AFTERNOON SOUNDING FROM LIHUE REVEALED A DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE THE AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN END AS INDICATED BY THE AFTERNOON HILO
SOUNDING...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH PERSISTS. FURTHERMORE...WITH LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING OVER
THE ISLANDS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND NIGHT TIME COOLING...THE CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BE DIMINISHED. THUS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE EASTERN ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN.
AS THE SURFACE LOW LINGERS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
...WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS UNDER SEA
BREEZES AND SOME CLEARING AT NIGHT UNDER THE LAND BREEZES. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY AS WELL AND WILL AID IN AFTERNOON CLOUD AND SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT.
THIS LOW NORTH OF THE STATE WILL FINALLY MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY AND
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO
THE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. AS A RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURES SYSTEM REESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE STATE...TRADE WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA. FORECAST CHARTS CONTINUES TO SHOW
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS SOMEWHAT BY THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN THE TRADE WIND INVERSION OVER THE
ISLANDS...ALLOWING ENHANCED TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...
LINGERING CLOUDS FROM AFTERNOON BUILDUPS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ISLANDS THIS EVENING...THOUGH CLOUD BASES ARE HIGH ENOUGH SUCH THAT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THERE MAY
BE LOCAL MVFR VIS CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF PHTO DUE TO VOLCANIC
EMISSIONS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR
OVER THE ISLANDS WHILE THE COASTAL WATERS MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW
CLOUDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER
COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.MARINE...
EVEN THOUGH THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL IS ON A DOWNWARD TREND...IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH
FACING SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE AFFECTED SHORES UNTIL THEN. THE
PENDING WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED AT THE BUOY NORTHWEST OF
THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL SHOULD REACH THE
ISLANDS
IN THE COMING HOURS AND WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS SURF FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH BY THE WEEKEND FOR
SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WINDIER AREAS AROUND
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.
&&
$$
HUI
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
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It was last modified on: Tue, Sep 21 2010 - 2314 UTC
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