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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
082
FXHW60 PHFO 232018
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. TRADE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE TRADES WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS. A TROUGH ALOFT MAY MAKE THESE SHOWERS
FAIRLY ACTIVE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 930 AM SHOWED OVERCAST CLOUDS OVER
KAUAI...AND SCATTERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WATER SOUTH OF KAUAI
AND LITTLE OR NOW PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE NEAR THE ISLANDS. A FAIRLY
STRONG 1032 MB HIGH IS ABOUT 1550 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. A HIGH LIKE THIS MIGHT NORMALLY BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SOLID TRADE WINDS OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUT A TROUGH ALOFT
IS INDUCING A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS NEAR THE ISLANDS. THESE TROUGHS
ARE KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT SLACK AND WE ARE SEEING
GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS.
THE PREVAILING FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
WIDESPREAD LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY. THE SEA BREEZES
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO FORM OVER ALL THE ISLANDS AND
PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE TROUGH ALOFT
NEAR THE ISLANDS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING AS RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. TRADE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE TRADES WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF A BIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT TRADE WINDS SHOULD BLOW WITHOUT INTERRUPTION THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
WITH THE TRADE WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ISLANDS THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL END AND SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
THOUGH TRADES ARE SLOWLY RETURNING...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH
TODAY TO ALLOW CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
VIS IN SHRA...AS WELL AS LOCAL MVFR VIS NEAR PHTO DUE TO VOG.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL WILL KEEP LOWERING...AND SURF ALONG SOUTH
SHORES WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE WINDIER LOCATIONS NEAR
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.
&&
$$
DONALDSON
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
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It was last modified on: Tue, Sep 21 2010 - 2314 UTC
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