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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 250202 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
402 PM HST FRI JUN 24 2016

Strong high pressure far north of Kauai will continue to generate
moderate to breezy trade winds into next week. An increase in
showers is expected for the smaller islands tonight as a batch
showers moves through from the east. Otherwise, showers will favor
windward and mountain areas with some passing over leeward areas.
The Kona slopes of the Big Island will see afternoon and evening
clouds accompanied by scattered showers.


A screaming eagle cloud formation is moving into the smaller
islands from the east this afternoon, and showers and clouds will
be on the increase over the smaller islands tonight. A screaming
eagle is another name for a weak surface trough embedded in the
trade wind flow. They are usually associated with increased
rainfall and humidity.

Windward areas will take the brunt of the rainfall with passing
showers reaching leeward locations. The rainfall will focus over
Kauai and Oahu but showers will also increase over windward Maui
and the Big Island. Rainfall totals are expected to be in the 1 to
2 inch range for the wettest areas.

High pressure will remain firmly in place far to the
north, providing the islands with breezy trade winds into the
foreseeable future. The screaming eagle will pass west of the
islands Saturday and then the islands will fall into a normal
trade wind regime for the rest of the forecast period. Showers
will continue to favor windward and mountain areas with leeward
locations seeing an occasional shower passing through. The leeward
slopes of the Big Island will continue to experience the diurnal
pattern of clearing skies at night and in the morning, with
increasing clouds and showers in the afternoons.


A band of low clouds that extends 250NM ENE from the coastal waters
NE of Oahu and Kauai is moving W at 15Kt. Most of the clouds are
remaining offshore, and VFR still prevails over most areas. There
may be enough MVFR ceilings or VIS at times to require AIRMET SIERRA
for MTN OBSC, especially on Oahu and Kauai.


Locally strong trade winds continue to affect portions of the
typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island,
and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect there through
Saturday afternoon. Winds will increase tonight across the
northern half of the state, namely around Kauai and Oahu, as a
weak trough rides by. These winds are expected to approach small
craft advisory levels, and these areas will need to be closely
monitored throughout the next 24 hours.

Southerly swell continues to slowly decline in energy. A second
smaller, long period south swell is expected late sunday bringing
below advisory level surf through the middle of the week. Elevated
surf along windward facing shores will continue due to short
period trade wind swell. These surf heights are expected to remain
below advisory levels.


Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel.




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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