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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
172
FXHW60 PHFO 100141
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST TUE FEB 9 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO KAUAI AND OAHU LATER WEDNESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE
TRADES WILL FRESHEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE
PROVIDING A STRONG LID ON THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. 12Z
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
FEBRUARY...AND THE RAIN GAGE REPORTS ARE COMING IN GOOSE-EGGS
EVERYWHERE. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES
NORTH OF KAUAI. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY GET LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LAND BREEZES
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
STATE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES IN SOME
AREAS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE THROUGH OAHU DURING THE EVENING. THE FRONT
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE AROUND MOLOKAI BY EARLY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY SO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF. BEHIND THE
FRONT...FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FILL IN AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH.
AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES EARLY THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA...CAUSING THE TRADES TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE
EASTERLY. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE FROM THE OLD FRONT AND THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A BIT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND. IN ADDITION...SUBTLE TROUGHING AT MID LEVELS WILL DEEPEN THE
CONVECTION A LITTLE...SO THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A MORE NORMAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS OF ALL
THE ISLANDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND MAY BE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUBBLES OVERHEAD
UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH SURF WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY A LARGE AND
INTENSE STORM SYSTEM FAR NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL
BRING SURF HEIGHTS TO WARNING LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY. A
REINFORCING SMALLER NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO COME IN ON
SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES. THE SURF FROM
THIS SWELL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE 8-FOOT HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR SOUTH-FACING SHORES.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU...KAUAI...OAHU AND MOLOKAI...NORTH FACING SHORES
OF MAUI AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY AND PAILOLO CHANNEL.
&&
$$
BRENCHLEY
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
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It was last modified on: Tue, Jun 16 2009 - 0632 UTC
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