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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

315
FXHW60 PHFO 060200
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WILL
CAUSE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLANDS TO TRIGGER CLOUD BUILD
UPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY AFTERNOON SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES
KAUAI FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TRADES FOCUSING REMNANT MOISTURE OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI AND IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. A RIDGE AXIS LIES 200 MILES
NORTH OF KAUAI. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE STATE...AND DOMINATING SEA BREEZES OVER THE
ISLANDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW CLOUD BUILD UPS AND
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND INTERIORS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...WITH KAUAI SEEING THE MOST RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DECREASING SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE
LAND BREEZES SET IN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD SIDES OF THE
ISLANDS. MOISTURE MAY FUNNEL IN OVER THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST SLOPES.

FOR FRIDAY...SEA BREEZES WILL AGAIN SET UP AND BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST DRAWS MORE MOISTURE OVER THE STATE. THE SOUTHEAST
BACKGROUND FLOW WILL PRODUCE MUGGY CONDITIONS AND BRING VOG ONTO
THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES KAUAI
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE STATE. THESE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY...AND WILL FUNNEL
SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN TO MODERATE BREEZES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BEFORE BOOSTING UP AGAIN TUESDAY AS A HIGH BUILDS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FORMER FRONT/TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WET TRADE WIND CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE TRADES
WILL FOCUS SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS
FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

.AVIATION...
THE FRONT NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE
STATE...PUSHING THE RIDGE SOUTH ONTO THE ISLANDS. THE RESULTING
LIGHT BACKGROUND SE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP...ALONG WITH INTERIOR CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. OVERALL
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR THIS EVENING. EXPECT MOST
LAND AREAS TO BEGIN CLEARING AS LAND BREEZES TAKE HOLD.

AN AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE BIG ISLAND. THE
NORTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME
PROLONGED PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE BAND OF
MOISTURES MOVES THROUGH. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE
ITS WAY TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS VERY LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING THE
CHANGE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG NORTH AND EAST
SIDES. THERE ARE NO AIRMETS POSTED AT THIS TIME FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSC...BUT THEY CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TONIGHT AND WILL
BE POSTED AS NEEDED.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A
REINFORCING SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL SOUTH SWELL WILL MAINTAIN BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES TONIGHT. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY AND PEAK LATE SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL
AVERAGE...AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SURF
WILL BE ELEVATED...SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS
WEEKEND.

TRADE WINDS BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL MARGINALLY
BOOST SURF HEIGHTS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. NO HIGH SURF OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT...OR EXPECTED...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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