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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

269
FXHW60 PHFO 050633
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE GOVERNING RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH. RATHER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
PATTERN...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...NEXT WEEK AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE TROUGHING BETWEEN 160W AND THE DATELINE KEEPS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RATHER SLACK ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS EVENING.
THE RESULT IS LIGHT PREVAILING EASTERLIES ACROSS LOCAL WATERS AND
OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THEMSELVES. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS LOW CLOUD COVER ADVECTING IN TO WINDWARD AREAS OF MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND...WITH RESIDUAL AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER ACROSS LEEWARD
SECTIONS OF THAT ISLAND. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER IS SPARSE ACROSS
THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH PATCHY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DECREASING
ACROSS MAUKA AREAS. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW OUR AIRMASS BECOMING
MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE TOWARD THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN...CLOSER TO THE TROUGHING WEST OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...RADAR
SHOWS VERY LITTLE SHOWER PRODUCTION ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW THE TROUGHING WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST TO
REBOUND WESTWARD. THIS WILL STEEPEN OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE TRADE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE RATHER DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A TRADE
WIND PATTERN...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND TRADE WINDS INCREASE. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...CAUSING LEEWARD AREAS TO GET WET
AS WELL FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHOWERS ARE BLOWN ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU AND THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI ARE MONITORING A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS...SO EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT. A FEW
MORE SHOWERS MAY FORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BUILD TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL WILL LOWER GRADUALLY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE SOUTH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SMALL NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE SHORT PERIOD
CHOPPY SURF TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-MOLOKAI-
LANAI MAKAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG
ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...M BALLARD




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