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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

013
FXHW60 PHFO 262005
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
950 AM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE
WINDWARD AREA. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A RESULT WITH WINDS
WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY MIDWEEK. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
SIDES OF ALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING...PROVIDING A STARK CONTRAST IN
WEATHER CONDITIONS BETWEEN MOSTLY SUNNY LEEWARD SIDES AND OVERCAST
WINDWARD AREAS. THE INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN QUITE LOW AND THIS IS
KEEPING CLOUDS PINNED NEAR THE RIDGETOPS...AND LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS
ARE MAKING IT TO THE LEE OF THE CRESTS. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. THE EXPECTATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT SLIGHT
DAYTIME WARMING NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO BREAK UP THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE LAYER AND GIVE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
WINDWARD AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN PRIME FOR
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SOLIDIFY AGAIN OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT
AGAIN WITH RATHER PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT SHOWERS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS FOR WEAKENING TRADES
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. EXPECT A DECREASE
IN SHOWERS WINDWARD AS A RESULT OF THE LIGHTER WINDS...AND A
BEGINNING OF THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH DOMINANCE OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED
AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY
STALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LARGE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC...AS SOME MODELS ARE HINTING...BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY AWAY
FROM USING ONE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND TAKE AN AVERAGE OF ALL
MODELS APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES WILL PRODUCE
TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN
THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP OFF EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE
STATE.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TRENDING DOWN ACROSS THE STATE. THE
NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF HEIGHT'S ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...DONALDSON



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