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Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

318
FXHW60 PHFO 090647
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEK. CURRENT NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENTLE TRADE
WINDS RETURN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING AS A RIDGE IS MOVING NEAR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. THERE ARE
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG
ISLAND WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION BLANKETED THE ISLAND RATHER
EXTENSIVELY EARLIER. AIRMASS IS STABLE AND RATHER DRY SO THERE IS
LITTLE PRECIPITATION REPORTED. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO
DEVELOP. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS UNDER
DAYTIME HEATING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN STABLE AND RATHER DRY...THUS
LIMITED...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 50/S BEFORE REBOUNDING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH THE DRY AIR AND THE EXPECTED LIGHT
WINDS...NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50/S FOR SOME LOCATIONS AT THE SEA LEVEL...WITH EVEN
COLDER TEMPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF KAUAI BY THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT/MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO RETURN. FORECAST MODELS
INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY.
EXPECT TRADE WIND WEATHER FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
SOME PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITIES. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF REMAINS ELEVATED ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AND WEST FACING SHORES OF WESTERN MAIN ISLANDS. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF
NIIHAU AND KAUAI AS WELL AS NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND
MAUI THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

A VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...PEAKING WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PEAK SWELL HEIGHTS AT 16-18 FT
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WELL ABOVE WARNING LEVEL SURF WILL BE PRESENT ALONG NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF MOST SMALLER ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME SWELL WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTH FACING SHORES ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY EVENING.

COASTAL WAVE RUN-UP WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS VERY LARGE
SWELL. THE GREATEST REACH WILL OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDES FROM
PREDAWN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS LARGE NW SWELLS
HAVE SCOURED SAND FROM THE BEACHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND WEST
FACING COASTLINE. THE LACK OF SAND WILL ALLOW A GREATER WAVE RUN-UP
FOR THIS EVENT...AND ANY UPCOMING LARGE SWELLS RELATIVE TO EARLIER
IN THE SEASON WHEN MORE BEACH SAND WAS PRESENT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

HUI


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