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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

622
FXHW60 PHFO 211947
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING
DRY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE THE
FRONTS WAKE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING BACK A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO A POSITION A FEW HUNDRED
MILES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS PLACES THE ISLANDS IN A MODERATE TRADE
WIND ENVIRONMENT. MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES IS PROVIDING FOR
SOME PASSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND NUDGING THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO STATE. THIS WILL CAUSE
OUR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER AND VEER TO A MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO MAUKA AND
INTERIOR AREAS.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH KAUAI SUNDAY NIGHT...OAHU MONDAY
MORNING...MAUI COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
BIG ISLAND BY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AND IN A
WEAKENING STATE AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PASS BY FAR TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. PASSING SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FILL
IN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
FOLLOWING
IN IT WAKE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE FOR A
TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS WITH MOST LEEWARD LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG INVERSION AT LIHUE BUT A WEAKER ONE AT
HILO. WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND GREATER MOISTURE...
SATELLITE AND RADAR ESTIMATED CLOUD TOPS ARE GENERALLY 10-15KFT OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WITH
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES FURTHER TONIGHT.

RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES AND 18Z ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF HNL SHOW
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH
STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE LOCATED
IN AN AREA WITH THE WEAKER INVERSION...AND WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
RECENT REPORTS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE STATE...AND WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE DEFORMATION/VERTICAL SHEAR INDEX SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
HIGH-LEVEL TURBULENCE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...WHICH MAY REQUIRE AN
AIRMET.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS WILL DROP OFF
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN.

THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF NORTHWEST SWELLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE LARGEST SURF IS EXPECTED DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TIME FRAME WITH HEIGHTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...BRAVENDER






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