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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

492
FXHW60 PHFO 010212
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
412 PM HST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET TRADE WINDS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
BEFORE DROPPING TO MODERATE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OFF AND ON SHOWERS TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS. A
SEPARATE BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL
MAINTAIN PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS. MOST SHOWERS ARE
FAST MOVING SO ANY DOWNPOURS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED.

A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS USHERING IN STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ISLANDS IS PROVIDING SLIGHT
INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE AND RADAR ESTIMATED CLOUD TOPS BEARS
THIS OUT SHOWING THE HIGHEST TOPS REACHING 20 THOUSAND FEET. THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE EXITING TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...EXPECT WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS TO REMAIN WET WITH
PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MAINTAIN ITS EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
WEEKEND... AND TRADE WINDS WILL DROP GRADUALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TRADES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR IN SOME AREAS. ALTHOUGH
CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY HAVE WARMED SOME...THERE ARE STILL SOME TCU
OUT THERE AS OF MID-AFTERNOON. DROPPED SIGMET SIERRA FOR TS NEAR
THE PHNL-CA FLIGHT ROUTES...BUT KEEPING AIRMET IN PLACE FOR THE
MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO SEE MT OBSC TONIGHT...NAMELY N/E FACING
SLOPES FROM KAUAI-MOLOKAI. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADD WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND SLOPES AS WELL AT SOME POINT.

RADAR VELOCITY AZIMUTH DISPLAY WIND PROFILES SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...THUS WE WILL LEAVE AIRMET
FOR LOW LEVEL TURB S-W OF MT IN PLACE INTO THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMBINATION OF NORTH AND TRADE WIND SWELLS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ELEVATED SURF ON NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR EAST SHORES HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A SMALL LONG
PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES. SMALL/MODERATE NNW AND N SWELLS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN SOME AREAS BY SATURDAY...BUT SCA
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS AROUND
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THOSE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
R BALLARD...AVIATION




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