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Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

909
FXHW60 PHFO 062017
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1017 AM HST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOMEWHAT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...GENTLE WINDS AND A BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS WHILE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. WINDY...COOL AND DRY
WEATHER WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE ISLANDS. GENTLE TRADE WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 930 AM...A SOMEWHAT STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH ITS LEADING EDGE LOCATED ROUGHLY 125
MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. AS THIS FEATURE WENT OVER BUOY 51001 A
FEW HOURS AGO...NORTHWEST WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASED TO AROUND 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. STABLE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
KAUAI THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALIZED ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE...THE TROUGH DRIVING THE FRONT HAS
PRODUCED A WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW EASTWARD TO MAUI. AS A
RESULT...A CONVERGENCE BAND WITH CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS
HAS SET UP OVER OAHU...MOLOKAI...AND LANAI. MORNING AIRCRAFT DATA
INTO HNL INDICATES THAT THIS MOISTURE IS CAPPED BY AN INVERSION
AROUND 8000 TO 9000 FT...WHILE SATELLITE DATA DETECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.4 INCHES. THIS BAND WILL CREEP
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...KEEPING THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER OAHU THIS MORNING AND OVER MAUI COUNTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH GENTLE SEA BREEZES
DOMINATE ON THE BIG ISLAND.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LATEST MODEL DATA HAS
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST 10000 FT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE BREEZY AND
GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND
OF TERRAIN. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS TRIMMED BACK TO EXPIRE ON SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE WILL MONITOR DATA CLOSELY TODAY. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS TONIGHT...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL SPREAD INTO THE STATE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP WELL INTO THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE COOL
WITH MANY AREAS SEEING READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND MID
TO UPPER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS EVEN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RATHER COOL AS WELL...
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO NEAR KAUAI. IT
APPEARS THAT A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING GENTLE TRADE WIND FLOW
OVER THE ISLANDS. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE NEXT FRONT
NORTH OF THE STATE AROUND MIDWEEK...ALTHOUGH THE EARLIER 00Z GFS
RUN BROUGHT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OR SHEAR LINE THROUGH THE
WESTERN ISLANDS DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE
RAINFALL EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMETS FOR MTN OBSC AND LO LVL TURBC ARE LIKELY FOR KAUAI AFT 01Z
OR 02Z...IN ASSOCIATION OF A FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ABT 150 NM
NW OF KAUAI. THE LO LVL TURB IS FOR STG AND GUSTY NLY WINDS RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. FNT HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACH THE
ISLANDS AND IS CURRENTLY MOVG SE AT 14 KT. AFT REACHING
KAUAI...FNT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OAHU AROUND 08Z.

THE AREA OF CLOUDS AND MAINLY LGT RAIN FALLING OVER OAHU AND PARTS
OF MAUI COUNTY CONSIST OF A CEILING AT 4 TO 5K FEET...ABV MVFR
CRITERIA OF 3K FEET. WE ARE WATCHING OUT FOR AN AREA OF LO CLDS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS APCHG ERN BIG ISLAND. NO AIRMET AS 10 AM HST
BUT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LATEST ASCAT PASS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED AROUND 200 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE
STATE LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL FILL IN OVER THE MARINE AREAS
THROUGH THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND
WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED OVER THE BIG ISLAND WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH.

ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL RELAX MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE STATE...A MODERATE TO LARGE NW SWELL WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL GENERATE NEAR ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF
ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND DEPICTS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING AND
STALLING FROM EAST TO WEST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREAS AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF
ALONG THE EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
WAVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SWELL BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PEAKING THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND SLOWLY
EASING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PROVIDED THE CURRENT
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...
FURTHER FINE-TUNING WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PEAK WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVOLVES AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON HST SUNDAY FOR OAHU.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON HST SUNDAY FOR
NIIHAU-KAUAI.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY
FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY
FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD
WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY
FOR OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...WROE
AVIATION...LAU
MARINE...GIBBS


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It was last modified on: Tue, Aug 25 2015 - 2342 UTC
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