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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

731
FXHW60 PHFO 291353
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDWARD SHOWERS...MAINLY ON KAUAI AND OAHU. A COUPLE
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL
RESULT IN THE WEAKENING OF TRADE WINDS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE STAGING A COMEBACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR DATA AS WELL AS LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS. QUITE
A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE PRESENT IN THE ISLAND VICINITY
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH RADAR DATA SHOWING AN AREA OF RAIN CLOUDS
JUST NORTHEAST OF OAHU AT TIME. MUCH OF THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE WINDWARD AREAS UNDER THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS. EARLY MORNING
SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A RATHER DRY AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY...THOUGH LIHUE SOUNDING HAS BECOME A TAD MORE UNSTABLE
COMPARED TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY...WHILE
LEE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.

TRADE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE
ISLANDS...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES EAST FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH PASSING LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS.

A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS THE
STATE ON TUESDAY. ITS PRESENT WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ISLAND VICINITY. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN ACROSS THE ISLANDS. IN
FACT...WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ENOUGH ALLOWING LAND AND
SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE DUE TO THIS SHORT WAVE. BUT THEN
DEEPER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS UNDER THE CONVERGING
SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. THIS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SWIFTLY EAST
WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONGER TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE BRIEFLY.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS INDICATED BY THE FORECAST MODELS.
EVEN THOUGH THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BE A WEAK
FEATURE...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
ISLAND VICINITY...RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN. CONVECTIVE WEATHER WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE...FORECAST MODELS ALSO HINT
THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY MAY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE BE ENHANCED. STRONGER TRADE WINDS MAY RETURN
TO THE AREA TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DUE TO HIGH VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF
THE STATE TODAY...AS TRADE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF KAUAI...OAHU AND MAUI...WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. AIRMET SIERRA FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND AS WELL THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...WITH JUST ISOLATED MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
READINGS FROM THE BUOY FAR NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS HAVE SHOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF A LONG-PERIOD WNW SWELL IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AS
SUCH...THIS SWELL WILL REACH KAUAI LATE THIS MORNING...THEN OAHU BY
THE AFTERNOON. THE READINGS ARE ALSO IN-LINE WITH WHAT THE
WAVE-WATCH MODEL HAS BEEN INDICATING. THEREFORE...SURF HEIGHTS WILL
BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY KAUAI AND NIIHAU. THIS SWELL WILL PEAK
LATE TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY. A SMALL SWELL
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST IS DUE NEXT WEEKEND. A SMALL BACKGROUND
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE INCOMING MODERATE WNW SWELL
MAY LIFT THE COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO THE 10 FT THRESHOLD FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE OVER EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JACOBSON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI



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