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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

833
FXHW60 PHFO 290145
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
345 PM HST Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong and gusty easterly trade winds are expected into Friday as
high pressure strengthens north of the state. Showers will favor
windward and mountain areas with some reaching the leeward areas.
Drier and more stable conditions will return over the weekend,
with the easterly trades easing into the moderate to breezy range.
Rainfall chances could trend up again early next week as an upper
disturbance moves through and trade winds increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1033 mb surface high north of the area will drive strong trade
winds through tonight. This has prompted a Wind Advisory for the
typically windier areas of Maui County and the Big Island through
tonight. In addition to the winds, spotty windward shower coverage
is expected, especially overnight through the morning periods due
to a sufficient amount of low level moisture and a weak upper
trough in the area. These showers will be moving through swiftly
with minimal accumulations anticipated.

Drier and more stable conditions will briefly return over the
weekend as upper heights rise and precipitable water dip to
around an inch. Trade winds are expected to ease into the moderate
range due to a weakness forming in the ridge as a front passes to
the north.

A return of breezy to strong trades is anticipated through the
first half of next week as high pressure builds north of the state
(near 1050 mb). Model differences still remain with the GFS being
stronger with the winds, while the ECMWF has a more moderate
solution. Regardless of these differences, both depict an upper
trough digging southward over the region creating an increased
chance of heavier trade wind showers Monday through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
A surface high north of the islands will strengthen and bring
strong trades through tomorrow. SHRA and low cigs possible
windward and mauka locations. Coverage will be more scattered in
nature so no AIRMETs are out for MTN OBSC. AIRMET Tango out for
tempo moderate turb lee of the island terrain. Also for 30 kt or
greater winds from Molokai to the Big Island.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north of the state will support strong to gale
force trade winds into Friday, then strong trades will persist
into the first half of the weekend for some coastal zones. A Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for all Hawaiian coastal
waters through Friday afternoon, with the exception of the Pailolo
and Alenuihaha Channels, where a Gale Warning is in effect
through tonight followed by a SCA on Friday. Next week, another
high pressure building into the region from the northwest is
expected to continue the breezy trend across the coastal waters.

Strong trades will create rough and choppy surf along east facing
shores into next week. A small, medium period northwest swell
will fade tonight, trending surf heights slightly down along north
and west facing shores on Friday while remaining well below
advisory levels. A series of small medium to long period northwest
swells are expected through early next week. Mainly background
surf will continue for south facing shores through the weekend
with some small, long period energy arriving early next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Lanai Mauka-Maui
Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Lanai
Windward-Lanai Leeward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central
Valley South-Windward Haleakala-South Haleakala-Big Island
Southeast-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-
Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.

Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Friday for Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM HST Friday for Pailolo
Channel-Alenuihaha Channel.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Vaughan

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office