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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

300
FXHW60 PHFO 011402
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
350 AM HST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8-E REACH THE ISLANDS TODAY AND ON
SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS WILL REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES.
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED FAR N OF THE STATE AND
KEEPING MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY...ALONG
WITH TRADE SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
DATA FROM THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR NETWORK SHOWED THE MOST ACTIVE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AFFECTING WINDWARD OAHU...ESPECIALLY THE KOOLAU
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING WITH THE TRADES
AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAINED LIGHT TO MODERATE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8-E REACH THE E HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL RESIDE OVER WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLANDS ON SUN...STILL WITH BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THE TRADES WILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS INTO LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT
TIMES...INCLUDING THE HONOLULU METRO AREA.

MODEL DATA SHOW THE TRADES BEING DISRUPTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HURRICANE GUILLERMO MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM THE E. AT 3 AM
HST...GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1180 MILES ESE OF HILO...AND IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL THEN BRING THE AFOREMENTIONED DISRUPTION OF
THE TRADES...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE A CONCRETE IDEA OF SPECIFIC
IMPACTS FOR THE ISLANDS. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SHIFTING
DIRECTIONS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF GUILLERMO FOR THE WED TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE OVERALL FORECAST
SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
NEW MODEL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL OUTCOME OF GUILLERMO...THE SOLUTIONS ON
GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS GUILLERMO...OR
ITS REMNANTS...MOVE TO THE N OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE STATE AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS S
OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A BREEZY E TO NE TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FOCUS
PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PHLI AND PHTO THROUGH
MID MORNING...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT
PHTO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT
LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8E MOVES OVER THE BIG ISLAND.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND
S THRU W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ACROSS N THRU E SECTIONS OF MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS MOLOKAI
AND MAUI...BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION COULD LINGER MOST OF THE DAY
ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 6 AM HST
SUNDAY. HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED FAR EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AND REACH
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN
THE FUTURE...ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEK
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND IS
LIKELY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JELSEMA





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