Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Polar_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Lightning_Data
Forecasts
Vog_Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans:
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

927
FXHW60 PHFO 281956
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER SOME LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE. THIS PLACES THE ISLANDS IN A RATHER STRONG TRADE WIND
ENVIRONMENT. MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES IS PROVIDING FOR SOME
PASSING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WITH MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING
DRY.

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER TIME. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADES A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THUS
A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS AND
PASSING SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE GLOBAL MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHAT WEATHER SCENARIO THE ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE. THE
LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUING. THUS THE GFS SOLUTION HAS A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN
DEVELOPING WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS US IN A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THE
ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN ITS LONG RANGE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOD TURB LEEWARD OF ALL ISLANDS DUE
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

AIRMET SIERRA IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MTN OBSC DUE TO LOW CLOUDS BANKED
AGAINST THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG
ISLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY TONIGHT FOR THESE LOCATIONS. VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE STATE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH A BIT BEGINNING ON SUNDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH OF THE USUAL WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND LIKELY EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND SWELLS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST EAST FACING SHORES
AS A MODERATE SIZE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUT
SHORELINES. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SWELL WILL LINGER ON INTO SUNDAY.
A MODERATE SIZE NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES. ALSO A MODERATE SIZE NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY
EXCEEDING ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR EAST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS...EXCEPT THE MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...FOSTER



Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Tue, Sep 21 2010 - 2314 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman