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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

193
FXHW60 PHFO 201957
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BATCH OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL BRING
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN ISLANDS INTO THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TRADE WIND WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LEEWARD
AREAS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE KONA SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS AND AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND MOVING TO THE WEST. THE 850-700 MB LAYERED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELD IN THE GFS IS PICKING UP ON THIS AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE FAIRLY WELL. BASED ON ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT...HAVE INCREASED
POPS NEAR AND OVER THE BIG ISLAND FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO WHERE
THIS MOISTURE SPREADS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME OF THE MODELS
BRING THE MOISTURE UP THE ISLAND CHAIN WHILE OTHERS TRACK IT OVER
THE BIG ISLAND AND THEN OFF TO THE WEST. FOR NOW THE FORECAST
SPREADS SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO MAUI...AND THEN WASHES THE MOISTURE
OUT...WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES LATER TOMORROW.

HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON SOME ADDITIONAL AREAS OF MOISTURE THAT WILL RIDE IN ON
THE TRADES THIS WEEKEND...ENHANCING THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME...THE MAIN AREAS OF MOISTURE LOOK TO PASS OVER THE ISLANDS
SATURDAY MORNING OVER KAUAI...WITH ANOTHER BATCH MOVING OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH MOVES IN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE LONGER RANGE TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT A
LARGE CLUSTER OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...ABOUT 160 MILES
WIDE AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE BIG ISLAND FROM
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAUI TONIGHT. AND A MUCH SMALLER CLUSTER OF LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH COASTS OF MAUI EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONTO MOLOKAI AND OAHU LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THUS SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR PERIODICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
THE CLOUDS AND THEIR ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS BUT MAINLY OVER WINDWARD
SECTIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST JUST BELOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

A NEW SSW SWELL WILL ARRIVE TODAY...THEN BUILD TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RESULTING SURF WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY. THE SITUATION WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. OTHERWISE...SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL
CONTINUE ON EAST FACING SHORES...AND NO SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST SWELL
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...FUJII






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