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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 280631

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
831 PM HST Wed May 27 2020

A trade wind weather pattern can be expected over the next
several days thanks to high pressure north of the area. Clouds and
passing showers will tend to favor windward and mauka areas with
a few showers possible over select leeward locations.


Areas of high pressure will remain north of the area through the
first half of next week, resulting in sustained moderate trade
winds. An upper level low spinning several hundred miles south of
the state will continue to draw up some thin high cirrus clouds
across the area over next couple of days. Ridging aloft will keep
the airmass on the stable side. Moisture embedded in the trades
will provide for some passing showers over windward and mauka
areas with the trades sufficiently strong enough to allow for a
few passing showers over select leeward areas at times. Models
indicate an increase in moisture availability by around Tuesday of
next week. This may allow for increased shower activity
especially for windward and mauka areas.


Similar to the last several nights, high pressure northeast of the
state will bring moderate trades across the islands. Thus,
scattered shower activity will be mainly concentrated along
windward coasts and slopes. Periods of MVFR conditions may occur
at times due to lowered ceilings and reduced visibility from SHRA.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.


Moderate to locally strong trade winds will prevail through the
week. A 1030 mb high passing about 1100 nm north of the state will
be replaced by another high that will sit about 325 nm north of
the islands from Friday through the weekend, maintaining trades
around current levels. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains
posted for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and
Maui through Thursday afternoon, but winds will be at border line
SCA strength through at least the weekend, with stronger trades
possibly early next week.

Surf along all shores will remain mainly below seasonal normal
through the weekend, with larger surf due for southern shores next
week. A declining mix of south-southwest and south-southeast
swell will be reinforced by a pulse of long-period south-southwest
late Thursday, pushing south shore surf to near seasonal normal
Friday and Saturday. A larger south-southwest swell is expected
early next week, and south shore surf may reach High Surf Advisory
levels by Tuesday. This swell will be passing under the PacIOOS
buoy off of American Samoa in a day or so, which will give us a
better idea of potential size. A series of small northwest to
north swells will maintain small surf below seasonal normal for
north facing shores through much of the week. Surf along east
facing shores will remain below seasonal normal through early next
week then possibly build back to around normal.


Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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