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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

874
FXHW60 PHFO 040236 CCA
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
436 PM HST Wed Jun 3 2020

Corrected Synopsis last sentence, and second paragraph of the
Marine section.

.SYNOPSIS...
Locally breezy trade winds are expected through the weekend with
a ridge to the north of the islands. Clouds and limited shower
activity will be focused over the windward sides of the islands.
The leeward side of the Big Island will experience clouds and
some showers during the afternoon hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A surface ridge to the north of the islands will maintain a trade
wind flow into next week. The morning ASCAT pass did show some 25
kt winds had reached over some of the waters, and surface
observations are showing an uptick in winds as expected. The high
resolution models are showing that uptick to continue over the
next day or so, and then holding through the weekend.

Satellite derived precipitable water (PW) and the afternoon
soundings show higher values near Kauai and near the Big Island.
Still, like yesterday, despite PW values that would suggest more
shower activity, radar and rain gages have shown fewer/lighter
showers. The models seem to have locked on to those PW values,
which hasn't been the trend. The PoPs reflect lower values then
most of the models through tomorrow based on the observations.

Further upstream, satellite does show more showery clouds that
would ride in on the trade winds Thursday night/Friday. But even
with that uptick, rainfall totals are expected to remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...
Trade winds will continue into the weekend and tomorrow they
should increase slightly in speed. Dry conditions will limit the
shower activity and what showers we do see tonight through
Thursday will be light and relatively brief. They will also be
mostly confined to the windward slopes with a only a small chance
that a few showers may spill over into a few leeward areas. With
the limited shower activity to be brief, we will only have a
slight chance for MVFR conditions over windward mauka areas. The
rest of the state will have VFR conditions.

There are no AIRMETs currently in effect.


&&

.MARINE...
High pressure northeast of the state will drive moderate to
locally strong trades through the weekend. A slight surge in
trade winds is expected Thursday afternoon into Friday, which
could bring fresh to strong trades across the area. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the windier waters around Maui
and the Big Island through Friday, but will likely get extended
later in the week. High pressure is eventually expected to weaken
and shift further east early next week. This will likely bring a
drop in wind speeds and could cause the winds to veer toward the
east-southeast.

Surf along south facing shores is currently near its peak and will
be on a slow downward trend over the next few days. Latest
nearshore buoys from PacIOOS continues to show 4 to 5 feet of
deep water swell with this swell. Meanwhile, the offshore NOAA
buoys 51002 and 51004 is now starting to show a slow downward
trend in swell height and period. This data would suggest a slow
downward trend beginning tonight. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) for
south facing shores of all islands has been extended through
Thursday afternoon. A series of smaller south swells are expected
through early next week with surf holding near the summer
average.

Along north facing shores, a tiny northwest swell filled in today
and will be on a decline on Thursday. Surf along east facing
shores will slightly increase Fridays due to an uptick in trade
winds. No other significant swells are expected.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Niihau-Kauai
Windward-Kauai Leeward-Oahu South Shore-Waianae Coast-Molokai-
Lanai Makai-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Maui Central Valley-
Windward Haleakala-Leeward Haleakala-Kona-South Big Island-Big
Island North and East.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...Chevalier
MARINE...Kino

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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