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Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans:
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

436
FXHW60 PHFO 200143
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
343 PM HST Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A gentle trade wind pattern will continue through Wednesday with
afternoon leeward sea breezes. Some volcanic emissions will
spread over the smaller islands through Wednesday night. Building
high pressure will increase trade winds Thursday afternoon, and
push any emissions south of the smaller islands. Trade winds will
become breezy Friday and continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An old frontal boundary sagged far enough south to bring cloudy
skies to Kauai today. The boundary is expected to move west and
dissipate late tonight. Very limited rainfall is expected through
Wednesday as the atmosphere remains stable with a mid and upper
ridge overhead. The surface ridge that has been persistently
positioned about 200 miles north of Kauai will remain for another
day or so, bringing light trade winds to windward areas, and
afternoon seas breezes and nighttime land breezes to leeward
locations. Volcanic emissions will spread north along the windward
Big Island coast through Wednesday night as winds just above the
surface shift from the ESE. This will allow some of those
emissions to reach the smaller islands.

Thursday, trade winds will be on the rise as high pressure builds
in from the NW and the surface ridge slowly retreats to the N.
Showers will focus over windward and mountain areas with an
occasional shower reaching leeward locations. Trade winds will be
breezy Friday and through the weekend as a 1035 mb high pressure
system takes firm control of the weather pattern in the central
Pacific. Aloft, global models are indicating a weak upper low will
drift close to Hawaii from the east and weaken our trade wind
inversion. This would allow for increasing cloud tops and the
potential for an increase in showers Sunday and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light trade winds and mainly dry weather will continue across the
state into Wednesday. There will be a short-lived, slight shift
in the trades from an easterly direction to a more southeasterly
direction. Expect mainly VFR conditions again today through
Wednesday. There is a slight chance for MVFR condition in two
areas; the windward slopes with showers and clouds and those
areas on the Big Island, due to volcanic emissions (to include the
Kona side now due to the shift in the winds.)

No AIRMETs are in effect or anticipated through this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain light through Wednesday as the stationary front
located just north of the main Hawaiian Islands continues to
dissipate. Land and sea breezes will continue to develop near
shore through Wednesday. Fresh to strong trades are forecast to
return through the second half of the week as a high builds far
northeast of the area. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed starting Thursday for winds reaching 25 knots in the windy
areas around the Big Island and Maui.

Surf will remain small through midweek with no significant swells
anticipated. Surf will build along east facing shores as trade
winds strengthen later in the week and through the upcoming
weekend. Overlapping swells from a storm southeast of New Zealand
may reach the area early next week. We will get a better idea of
the size of this swell later in the week as the swell reaches the
buoy near American Samoa.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Morrison
AVIATION...Chevalier
MARINE...Kino/Donaldson

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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