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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 252000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1000 AM HST Sat Jan 25 2020

Trade winds will continue through the weekend as a stationary
front dissipates over the western end of the state. Winds will
shift southeasterly by Monday as a front passes by to the north
with land and sea breezes prevailing Tuesday into Thursday.
Another front may bring wet weather to the state next weekend.


Visible satellite and radar show a low cloud band with light to
moderate showers associated with a dissipating front located over
and upstream of Oahu this morning. A weak high pressure system
behind the front is driving moderate trade winds across the state.
The trade winds are focusing the clouds and showers mainly over
windward sections of Kauai and Oahu, while most leeward areas
remain sunny. Expect some cloud cover and showers to linger
through the day, but overall looking at a drying trend over the
next 24 hours. Zonal flow aloft is keeping the atmosphere stable
with 12Z soundings from Hilo and Lihue showing a strong inversion
over the state.

Winds will begin veering east southeasterly on Monday as a weak
front passes north of the island chain, however, this feature is
not expected to impact the islands directly. Wind speeds will
remain at moderate breezes, but will see more blocking (by the Big
Island) across smaller islands as the direction becomes parallel
to the island chain. Localized land and sea breezes may set up in
areas beginning Monday afternoon. Land and sea breezes will become
more widespread Tuesday through Thursday as a stronger front
approaches and forces the subtropical ridge over Hawaii. Expect
afternoon cloud build ups and a few showers over interior sections
followed by clearing at night under this weather pattern.
Continued stability in the atmosphere will keep showers light and
to a minimum.

Both the GFS and ECMWF come into a little bit better alignment
with the front reaching Kauai on Friday accompanied by a passing
upper trough just north of the area. Both models weaken the front
across the central part of the state Saturday night and model
solutions begin to diverge from each other beginning Sunday as the
upper level feature moves east of the state. For today, will
trend the forecast wetter for the western and central portions of
the state Friday into Saturday, and will wait for better model
agreement after that time.


A weak stationary front is bringing low clouds and showers to
windward Kauai and Oahu and the adjacent windward waters. A ridge
stretching east to west in the area north of the islands will
provide light/moderate trade winds through tonight. Expect
isolated to scattered showers along windward coasts and slopes

A mountain obscuration is in effect for the windward slopes of
Oahu this morning. This AIRMET will likely be canceled by noon as
partial clearing is expected.


A ridge of high pressure north of the area will sustain moderate
to locally breezy trade winds across most coastal waters through
Monday. Beyond that time frame, a couple of fronts approaching the
area from the northwest through next week will weaken the winds
and turn them toward the east and southeast.

Seas are rising to SCA levels across most of the marine area as a
new large northwest swell arrives. Trade winds will also strengthen
to SCA levels across some of the windier channel waters and waters
south of the Big Island late today through Sunday. An SCA is now
in effect for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay through
Sunday due to a combination of winds and seas. Some marine zones
will likely hold on to SCA level seas into early next week.

Surf will keep pumping along north and west facing shores as a
progressive weather pattern across the northern Pacific keeps a
series of large northwest swells moving through the islands,
at least through the middle to latter part of next week.

Surf along exposed east facing shores will remain rather small
through the period due to the lack of persistent trades locally
and upstream across the eastern Pacific.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small through next week.
A couple background south swells expected over the weekend and
again on Tuesday should be enough to keep things from going flat.


High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Sunday for Niihau-Kauai
Windward-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Oahu
Koolau-Molokai-Maui Windward West-Maui Central Valley-Windward

High Surf Advisory from noon today to 6 AM HST Monday for Kona-

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian
waters except Maalaea Bay-




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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