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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

559
FXHW60 PHFO 091958
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
958 AM HST Sun Aug 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure north of the islands will maintain
locally strong trade winds through today with a gradual decrease
expected during the first half of this week. Passing showers will
be most common over windward and mountain areas, primarily during
the overnight and morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1035 mb high located far north-northeast of the state will
produce strong trades through today. Trade winds are expected to
gradually decrease beginning tonight and lower to moderate speeds
(10 to 20 mph) by Wednesday.

Latest radar and satellite imagery are showing the tail end of a
batch of cumulus clouds making its way through the state this
morning. As we head into the afternoon, we should see decreasing
clouds and showers across most areas. As far as precipitation for
the upcoming work week, we will continue to see our typical trade
wind showers, where showers will be focused over windward and
mauka areas especially during the night time and early morning
hours. No significant weather impacts are expected during the next
7 days.



&&

.AVIATION...
Fresh to locally strong trades will support scattered showers
with periods of low ceilings particularly over windward coasts
and slopes. Mountain obscuration spread to most of the smaller
islands overnight with a band of showery low clouds, which
continues this morning. Slightly drier trades are forecast to
work into the area later today.

AIRMET TANGO remains in effect below 7000 feet over and south
thru west of mountains for tempo moderate turbulence.

AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect above 2000 for the Big Island,
Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and Maui. As showers decrease through the
day, this AIRMET can likely be dropped for some or all areas.



&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to strong trade winds will continue into Monday, then trend
down Tuesday through midweek as high pressure weakens to the
north. Seas will remain at or near the 10 ft advisory level into
Monday across the Alenuihaha Channel and over the waters south of
the Big Island, then subside Tuesday into midweek. The Small
Craft Advisory has been expanded to include most Hawaiian waters
through late this afternoon. An extension into tonight for these
areas can't be ruled out.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough into the start of
the week due to the gusty trades. Although the surf will lower by
midweek as the trades relax locally, an upward trend is possible
through the second half of the week. Guidance depicts a decent
sized area of strong winds focused at the islands within the
040-050 degree band off the California coast today through
Tuesday, which should correspond to a medium period groundswell
out of the northeast arriving around Thursday.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the
week with mainly a mix of small, short-period southeast and
background south-southwest energy moving through.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-
Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi
Channel-Maui County Windward Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Foster

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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