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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

093
FXHW60 PHFO 282008
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL BRING GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOCALIZED
LAND AND SEA BREEZES. A PERSISTENT TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND WILL MAINTAIN LIGHTER WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERING
AROUND THE STATE WILL PROVIDE A RATHER CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER
PATTERN AT TIMES. TRADE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACTIVE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND AS EVIDENT BY A SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS
COVERING PORTIONS OF THE MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND AS WELL AS
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. IN THE MEANTIME AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED FAR TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS RATHER WEAK RESULTING IN
RATHER LIGHT WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
LIKELY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY INTERIOR BASED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST
THOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY CAUSE FOR SOME
PASSING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA
DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE TRADES FILL BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST E OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NE AND AWAY FROM THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN DOMINATED BY DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND
OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TERMINALS. DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER NE SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR
CIGS TO IMPACT PHTO...PHNY...AND PHOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NE SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND
AND N THRU E SECTIONS OF MAUI DUE TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SEA
BREEZE SHRA DEVELOPMENT MAY RESULT IN A NEED FOR AN EXPANSION OF
AIRMET SIERRA TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE OTHER ISLANDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
LARGER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TIME PERIOD WITH SURF HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.
DATA FROM THE AUNUU BUOY NEAR AMERICAN SAMOA CORRESPONDS WITH WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE. OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 5 FEET ARE FORECAST
OVER THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS WITH THE PEAK OF THE SWELL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SERIES OF SMALL NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER THE LARGE SOUTH SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR SOUTH FACING HARBOR
ENTRANCES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...JELSEMA







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