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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

482
FXHW60 PHFO 030159
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLANDS INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A LATE SEASON FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CAUSING OUR WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALLOWING SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR KAUAI BY THE END OF THIS WEEK...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TRADE WINDS RETURNING DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING CLOUDS UP THE WINDWARD SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN FALLING OVER THE STATE. LEEWARD
LOCATIONS HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...OTHER THAN THE KONA SLOPES
WHERE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES HAVE BROUGHT ABOUT CLOUDY SKIES. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AREAS AND MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WHILE
LEEWARD LOCATIONS WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD
KAUAI AND OAHU AS INCREASING MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE IS PRODUCING THE ISLAND
TRADE WINDS...AND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND HAWAII...OR ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF OAHU...WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE STATE WITH AN EXPECTED ARRIVAL
TIME OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS
WITH SOME SHOWERS SPILLING OVER TO LEEWARD LOCATIONS ON THE
SMALLER ISLANDS.

TRADE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS WINDS VEERING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES FORMING OVER
LEEWARD AREAS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NORTH OF KAUAI FRIDAY
WITH SEA BREEZES AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEA
BREEZES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER INTERIOR
AREAS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REMNANT
FRONTAL MOISTURE PROVIDING SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS BUT THERE MAY
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT PHLI AND PHTO IN PASSING SHRA
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD
SLOPES AS MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES INTERACTS WITH TERRAIN.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND
IMMEDIATELY S THROUGH W OF MOUNTAINS OF ALL ISLANDS AS BREEZY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE WINDIER WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...AS WELL AS THE KAIWI
CHANNEL. THE SCA WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. LOOK FOR TRADE WINDS TO REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. A
NEW SMALL LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
BACKGROUND SOUTH SWELL THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE A NOTICEABLE BUMP
IN SURF HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES FOR THE WEEKEND.
TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
BURKE...AVIATION

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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