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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

077
FXHW60 PHFO 031949
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
949 AM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS BLOWING OVER THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAKE SHOWERS
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED 1500 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI
AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAM ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
IS LOCATED OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE JET STREAM IS
CARRYING A THICK BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REST OF STATE BY THIS EVENING.

RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED OVER THE
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH WINDWARD OAHU HAVING THE MOST
SHOWERS OUT OF ALL OF THE ISLANDS. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...BUT INCREASE
OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AS ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM THE EAST. THERE BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY.

THE BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE 1037 HIGH
WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS RESULTING IN
STRONGER TRADE WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACTIVE...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. ENHANCED MOISTURE
LINGERS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...AND COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SLOPES...REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE ISLANDS IS CARRYING ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR
TO KEEP AIRMET TANGO POSTED FOR TEMPO MOD TURB BETWEEN FL200 AND
FL320. ADDITIONALLY...A THICK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS ALONG THE JET. AS THESE CLOUDS BEGIN TO PASS
OVER...THEY MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF AIRMET ZULU
TO LIGHT TO MOD RIME ICING ABOVE 130.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT
BUT THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.
THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BUT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON


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