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Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans:
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

178
FXHW60 PHFO 280156
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 PM HST TUE SEP 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface high far north of the area will move north through mid-
week, then back south through early next week. A ridge aloft will
remain over the islands through Friday. A trough aloft and tropical
moisture may combine to produce wet weather starting over the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The global models are in good agreement showing moderate to breezy
trade winds and stable conditions through the day on Friday. The
trade winds will push showers over windward areas, especially during
the nights and mornings. Leeward areas of the smaller islands will
be relatively dry while there will be afternoon clouds and showers
over the leeward side of the Big Island.

Both the GFS and ECMWF show an east northeast to west southwest
trough aloft trough deepening north of the islands starting Friday.
Both models also show a low aloft developing northwest of Kauai on
Saturday. Beyond that, the models diverge significantly and at this
point it is uncertain which one will be better. In either case, the
atmosphere over the islands is likely to become more unstable over
the weekend. Both models show moisture from the remnant of Ulika
moving over the islands over the weekend. With the moisture from
Ulika combined with instability from the trough aloft, there could
be a period of wet weather over the islands.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami is issuing bulletins on
Tropical Storm Ulika. This system is over 1100 miles east southeast
of Hilo and is moving toward the north northeast. The system is
likely to move back west of 140W in a couple of days. If it does,
the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu will issue the
bulletins on the system. The cyclone is not expected to affect
weather in the Hawaiian islands for the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail but ENE trade winds may produce isolated MVRF
conditions over windward areas, especially on the Big Island.
Breezy trade winds will persist through at least the next 24 hours.
Expect AIRMET TANGO to remain up for low level turbulence to the lee
of the mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the windy areas around
the Big Island and Maui. Both the GFS and ECMWF both show winds
weakening over the next 24 hours, but the winds may remain strong
enough for the SCA to stay up.

A small northwest swell will continue through tomorrow before fading
away. Surf will remain well below the advisory levels on all shores
for the next several days. Please see the Collaborative Surf
Discussion in the Marine section on our web site for details.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, the
Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels and waters south of the Big Island.

&&

$$
Donaldson

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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