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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

850
FXHW60 PHFO 241930
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO FRIDAY...WEAKEN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN RECOVER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH FLUCTUATES IN STRENGTH. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N155W...ABOUT 920 MILES NORTH OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...HAS RIDGES EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
30N130W AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 28N180W...SPANNING THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH WITH ITS RIDGES TO
OUR NORTH AND EQUATORIAL LOW PRESSURE IS SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS
THIS MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS...AND BECAUSE OF ANTICIPATED STRONGER
WINDS FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SHOWS UP IN
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATING CAPE BETWEEN 600 AND 1200 J/KG AND
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES. HOWEVER...A TRADE INVERSION NEAR 8100
FEET SHOWS RIDGING AND A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING AT LOWER
LEVELS. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PATCHY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES UPWIND FROM THE ISLANDS...WITH A TYPICAL PATCHWORK OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. RADAR DATA SHOWS SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS THIS MORNING.

MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGHING EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST MAY WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CAUSING TRADE WINDS TO DECREASE ON THOSE DAYS. A STRONGER
REINFORCING HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...STEEPENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOOSTING TRADE WINDS
AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/-RA WILL PRODUCE ISOL MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WINDWARD SECTIONS.
WINDWARD FIELDS MAY SEE INTERMITTENT MVFR OBS HOWEVER MAINLY SHORT
LIVED. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

STRONG TRADES NE G30KT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LLVL LEE TURB
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AIRMET TANGO WILL REMAIN POSTED. HIGH LEVEL JET
RELATED CHOP MAY INCREASE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE STATE AFT
25/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS IN ANTICIPATION
OF STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING COMBINED SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BE REDUCED IN AREA TO THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REACH THEIR MINIMUM SPEEDS LATE SUNDAY OR
MONDAY...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS...PRODUCING ROUGH SURF NEAR
THE ADVISORY LEVEL ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES BY FRIDAY. INCREASING
SEAS ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE NEED FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH WITH THE WINDS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE BELOW-ADVISORY SURF ALONG EXPOSED
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS TODAY. THE SWELL WILL DROP FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT A SMALL REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL MAY ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...DEJESUS







Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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It was last modified on: Tue, Sep 21 2010 - 2314 UTC
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