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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

774
FXHW60 PHFO 262000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE KAUAI WILL BE RATHER DRY. LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND COULD BE
BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PASSES
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR WINDWARD MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND. A DISSIPATING FRONT NEAR MAUI IS DRIFTING SOUTH
SLOWLY...AND ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK...INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WINDWARD RAINFALL FROM MOLOKAI TO
THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT IS
BUILDING OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL CAP CLOUD TOPS AROUND 10000 TO 12000
FT AND LIMIT SHOWER INTENSITY. FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
SOUTHWARD DRIFT TONIGHT...KEEPING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY
MAUI...RATHER WET.

DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI WILL DEVELOP ON OAHU
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED A
STRONG INVERSION NEAR 5500 FT...AND DEW POINT TEMPS ON KAUAI ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50/S. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE WINDWARD
CLOUD COVER ON THE GARDEN ISLE THIS MORNING...LITTLE RAIN WILL FALL.
DEW POINTS ON OAHU ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS SOME FRONTAL MOISTURE
REMAINS HUNG UP ON THE KOOLAU RANGE. EXPECT LINGERING WINDWARD
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATING FRONT CREEPS SOUTHWARD.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE TRADES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A 1027 MB HIGH PASSING
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT
TIGHTER NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER MAUI COUNTY AND NORTHERN BIG ISLAND TODAY.
TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DRIER TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY LEADING TO
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY IS
RESULTING IN SOME SHRA AND MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. GUSTY NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB FROM KAUAI TO
MAUI...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE PEAKING TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA
CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. THE SCA SHOULD
BE DOWN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE TRADES IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE.

A MIX OF NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS AND BUILDING
WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST ARE DUE TODAY. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL
PEAK AT MODERATE LEVELS...AROUND 5 OR 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS...TODAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS OBSERVED AROUND 2 TO 3 FT AT 13 TO 14
SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUED DECLINE IN STORE THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SMALL TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...SHORT PERIOD
TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY INTO FRIDAY 7 TO 8 FT AT 8
SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLLABORATIVE
NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...JELSEMA







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