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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

597
FXHW60 PHFO 281330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND WEAK
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT
TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN...AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY...SLOWLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT MAY REACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED LIGHT WINDS
OVERALL WITH A STRONG HINT OF LAND BREEZES...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND SATELLITE-BASED SCATTEROMETER DATA...SHOWED
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ALOFT...BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGING
STILL LINGERED OVER THE STATE...THOUGH A BROADER TROUGH SLOWLY
DENTED THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE WAS
PRESENT TO REINFORCE THE INVERSION AT NEAR ITS USUAL HEIGHT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINED SOMEWHAT DRY...BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES
SUGGESTED GRADUAL MOISTENING DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS OR SO.
STRATOCUMULI SPREAD AROUND MOST OF THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH THESE LOW CLOUDS STILL APPEARED MOSTLY STABLE IN SATELLITE
IMAGES...RADAR DATA SHOWED INCREASED SPECKLES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE WATER. WHERE THE LAND BREEZES PERMITTED...SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MOVED ASHORE...DROPPING ACCUMULATION OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN PLACES. THUS...CLOUD COVER...POPS...AND RELATED FIELDS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE RESULTING
FORECAST WAS NOT EXACTLY WET...IT CERTAINLY WAS LESS DRY THAN
EARLIER THINKING HAD ANTICIPATED.

GUIDANCE PREDICTED THE FEEBLE FRONT NOW APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. CONSENSUS PREDICTED LITTLE WATER VAPOR TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH RECENT RUNS DID BOOST THEIR PREDICTIONS FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. THE BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS AT THE SAME TIME WILL PROVIDE MOST OF ITS
SUPPORT FURTHER TO THE NORTH...LIMITING ITS LOCAL INFLUENCE. THUS...
RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS WELL. LIGHT TRADE WINDS
WILL RECOVER GRADUALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DISORGANIZED...POSSIBLY DIURNAL...SHOWERS INTO
SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS MAY WELL PRODUCE MORE RAIN THAN THE FRONT
ITSELF.

BY MONDAY...MOST SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A SECOND...STRONGER FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...TURNING WINDS SOUTHERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF
IT. GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO DISAGREE WITH RESPECT TO THE MOTION OF
MID-LEVEL LOWS NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THIS TIME. IF MOST TRACK
WELL NORTH...THEN ONLY WEAK AND BAGGY TROUGHING MAY BE PRESENT
NEARBY...GREATLY LIMITING SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE. ON
THE OTHER HAND...SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR
THE LOWS...AND THUS MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT. IN ANY CASE...
CONSENSUS PREDICTED MORE ABUNDANT WATER VAPOR ACCOMPANYING THIS
FRONT THAN THE FIRST ONE...SO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COMBINED SEAS IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA.

&&

$$

RYSHKO



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It was last modified on: Tue, Sep 21 2010 - 2314 UTC
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