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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

123
FXHW60 PHFO 252006
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1006 AM HST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SUNDAY. SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE WILL GET HUNG UP NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE ISLANDS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BRINGING STRONGER TRADES...COOLER AIR...AND LOWER HUMIDITY
FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE IN A ZONE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
TODAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT...AND DIMINISHING TRADES FROM AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT 1100 MILES NE OF HONOLULU NEAR 33N146W. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE WSW FROM THE HIGH TO ABOUT 200
MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. THE HIGH IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD THE
ESE...SO TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.

A NARROW BAND OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM AN OLD COLD FRONT
IS ABOUT 150 MILES TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS... AND EXTENDS WELL TO
THE E. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL GET CARRIED OVER THE ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS. A POCKET OF DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS BAND OF MOISTURE OVER
THE NORTHERN MAIN ISLANDS LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN MAIN ISLANDS INTO
MONDAY.

A FAIRLY TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUGHLY 700 MILES WSW OF KAUAI WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...GRADUALLY
REPLACING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE WITH WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL RAISE AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION OVER THE
STATE STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE OVERALL WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER...
SO TRADE WIND SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
MORE THAN AVERAGE. TRADES WILL BE LIGHT-TO-MODERATE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A NEW...LARGE HIGH FAR TO THE NW BEGINS TO SHIFT ESE.

FOR THOSE WHO ARE READY FOR A TASTE OF COOL...BRISK FALL-LIKE
WEATHER BY HAWAII STANDARDS...IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS COMING BY THU
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO OUR N...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ISLANDS WITH A
BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER...
COOLER TRADES AND MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD TO MATCH THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS. LEEWARD AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. ENHANCED MOISTURE AND SHOWERY CLOUDS FROM
AN OLD FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE ISLANDS FROM THE NE. EXPECT
THIS TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS...BRINGING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. AN
AIRMET FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAYBE NEEDED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SOUTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. EXPECTING A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

LARGE SCALE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE CATEGORY WHICH MEANS LOCALLY FRESH TRADES IN THE WINDIER
CHANNELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
R BALLARD/EATON



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