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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

812
FXHW60 PHFO 021410
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT LIGHT TRADE WINDS TO START RETURNING TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS
AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING GRADUALLY ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING TRADES. IN THE
MEAN TIME...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITION
CONTINUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE POCKET OF DRY AIR...CONTRARY TO THE MODEL SOLUTION...HAS BROKEN
DOWN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THANKS TO AN
UNSEASONAL CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THAT PART OF THE
STATE. RADAR IS DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
KAUAI COUNTY AND OFF THE WAIANAE COAST THIS HOUR...POSING A THREAT
TO THESE TWO TO THREE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...SUBDUELING
THOSE SHOWERS IN THE PROCESS. BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD HAVE ROLLED ASHORE TO HELP FUEL THE DAYTIME CONVECTIVE
PROCESS. SO WE DO ANTICIPATE A FEW INTERIOR/LEEWARD SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR KAUAI AND OAHU. SKIES WILL CLEAR UP ONCE THE SUN SETS
THIS EVENING.

THE UNUSUAL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN DUE A FRONT LOCATED 150 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE
FRONT WILL BE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PULLS NORTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND FILL DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...ALLOWING STRONGER TRADES TO RETURN.

THE BIG ISLAND IS CURRENTLY UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND
FLOW...AND THIS FLOW SHOULD BE SPREADING WEST TO OTHER PARTS OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW
BUT WE ANTICIPATE ALL ISLANDS TO BE UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WIND FLOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TRADES WILL BE HERE TO STAY...AT
LEAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT INCREASING TRADE SHOWERS WITH
THE STRENGTHENING TRADES...FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
LEEWARD DISTRICTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE DRY...WHILE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORS THE KONA SLOPES. THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES AT THE UPPER LEVELS. SO THIS TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RATHER BENIGN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO WARRANT AN AIRMET.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA IN THE WINDIER
MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING TRADES.

THE SOUTH SHORES WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SWELL ACTION OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SWELLS GENERATED BY SEVERAL
FAST-MOVING LOWS ARE ON THEIR WAY HERE THAT WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
TO MODERATE SIZE SURF OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PEAKS IN SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...APPROACHING BUT STAYING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NORTH FACING SIDE SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME
SMALL SURF FROM A NORTHWEST SWELL. THIS SWELL HAS JUST REACH KAUAI
IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...IS FORECAST TO PEAK TODAY THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LAU







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