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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

127
FXHW60 PHFO 262014
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OAHU LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE
OVER MAUI COUNTY ON MONDAY. SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEK WITH
TRADE WINDS BECOMING RATHER BREEZY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE AND
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH THE
TRADE WINDS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO BLOW SOME PASSING SHOWERS OVER TO
SOME LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND IS PRESENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE KAUAI
CHANNEL. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST AT THE PRESENT TIME. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
LACKING IN THE ISLAND VICINITY SO MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WITH A FEW EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWERS EMBEDDED
ALONG IT. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS SEEN OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT THESE ARE RATHER LIGHT AND ISOLATED. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER OAHU TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME PASSING
SHOWERS. WEATHER SHOULD IMPROVE OVER MOST OF THE KAUAI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN SPREAD OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING IT. IT IS THEN
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE NEAR MAUI MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TO OUR NORTH IN THE FRONTS
WAKE. TRADE WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BECOME RATHER FOR MOST OF THIS
WEEK. LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATED FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA AND OVER THE WATERS TO OUR EAST. ALSO THE WESTERN END OF A
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
A WET TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT THE TRADE WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
ENOUGH TO BLOW SOME PASSING SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS LATER IN THE
WEEK...TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF JUST A BIT WITH A DRYING
TREND EXPECTED AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ARRIVING LATER TODAY.
THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SURF HEIGHTS
EXPECTED TO REACH LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORELINES. THIS SWELL WILL LINGER ON INTO TUESDAY AND LOWER
GRADUALLY ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP SHORT
PERIOD CHOPPY SURF ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
ISLAND CHAIN TODAY...PUSHING THROUGH OAHU LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
AT THE TERMINALS...WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS THE
TRADES KICK BACK IN.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON OAHU AND
KAUAI. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ON KAUAI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER OAHU
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN INTO MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT.

AIRMET TANGO MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ISLANDS DUE TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB AS THE TRADE
WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...JELSEMA



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