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Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

545
FXHW60 PHFO 081409
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEK. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND DECREASE LATER TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENTLE TRADE WINDS RETURN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE EASED A BIT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A COOL POOL OF
AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE BIG
ISLAND FINALLY CLEARED OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG WINDWARD NORTH
AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED MORE PATCHES OF STABLE LOW
CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE STATE. THESE CLOUDS...UNDER THE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WILL REACH THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. STILL DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION FROM THESE CLOUDS AS THE AIRMASS IN
THE ISLAND VICINITY REMAINS QUITE STABLE. THEREFORE FAIR WEATHER
WITH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BUILDING OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE WEST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY AND EASING FURTHER LATER TODAY...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS UNDER THE
SEA BREEZES...WITH SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS IN THE ISLAND
WILL REMAIN STABLE AND SOMEWHAT DRY...THUS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO
THE ISLANDS. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF
A FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA UNDER THE TRADE WINDS. TYPICAL TRADE
WIND WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE AREA TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENED BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA...THOUGH FORECAST MODELS HINTED MOISTURE FROM THIS FRONT
MAY AFFECT THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...A RATHER STRONG
SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING MORE ROBUST TRADE
WINDS TO THE ISLANDS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...WITH MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES. NO
AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ROLLED IN
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING SURF ELEVATED ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES OF MOST
SMALLER ISLANDS AS WELL AS WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND
KAUAI AS WELL AS NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI HAS
BEEN EXTENDED TO EARLY TUESDAY.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY...PEAKING
WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWED PEAK SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15-18 FT
WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF WILL BE PRESENT ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES OF MOST SMALLER ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY
FRIDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL AND THE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS HAS BROUGHT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO ALMOST ALL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. AS THE WINDS DECREASE LATER TODAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVER MUCH OF THE LEE WATERS AS WELL AS PAILOLO
CHANNEL AND MAALAEA BAY BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JACOBSON
REST...HUI


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