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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

465
FXHW60 PHFO 281343
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
343 AM HST Tue Jun 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strengthening high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian
islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds blowing across
the state through the weekend. Passing clouds and showers will
drift through windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight
to early morning hours. An upper level disturbance may briefly
increase cloud and shower coverage this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This mornings satellite picture shows fairly stable clouds riding
in on the trade winds into windward and mountain areas of each
island. A weak subtropical jet stream continues to produce
scattered high level cirrus clouds over the islands enhancing
sunrise and sunset colors. Local radar imagery continues to show
isolated to scattered light showers developing across the state.
Upper air balloon soundings from 12Z (2 AM HST) this morning show
trade wind temperature inversion heights at 6,700 feet at Lihue
and 6,000 feet at Hilo. These inversion heights typically lead to
more stable scattered light shower activity, which matches well
with the early morning radar and satellite imagery.

In the big picture, a strengthening surface high pressure system
roughly 1,400 miles north of the islands will continue to produce
moderate to breezy trade winds across the region through the
weekend. Model cross sections continue to show subsidence
temperature inversion heights in the 6,000 to 8,000 foot range,
allowing clouds to grow taller, and produce passing showers over
windward and mountain areas through the week.

In the longer range forecast for the weekend, an upper level low
continues to track from southeast to northwest across the region.
Rainfall impacts with this system will depend heavily upon how
close this low center tracks relative to each island and are
highly variable this far out in the 5 to 7 day forecast time
period. Stay tuned.

No significant changes to the forecast grids this morning as
guidance remains on track for the next seven days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected to persist
through twenty-four hours and beyond. Bands of weak trade wind
showers will impact mainly windward slopes and coasts. Isolated
MVFR CIG and VIS are to be expected in passing showers. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail statewide.

Regarding Leeward Big Island, a weak eddy remains anchored just
west of the island. This has kept a broad area of VFR cloudiness
across the Kona coast overnight. Clouds are expected to lift in
the afternoon, but may spread further inland in the afternoon due
to weak sea breezes.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for low-level mechanical turbulence
below 9000 feet over and downwind of island terrain. Conditions
are likely to persist through at least early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to strong easterly trade winds have returned and are here to
stay through the upcoming weekend as the ridge strengthens to the
north. Trades may become strong over most waters Friday through
the weekend as 1030-1035 mb high sets up due north of the
islands. Seas will respond and become rough, potentially reaching
the 10 ft Small Craft level over the waters south of the Big
Island and in the Alenuihaha Channel this weekend.

Surf along south facing shores will hold this morning, then trend
up slightly this afternoon as a fresh south swell arrives. Heights
will near the 10 ft (faces) advisory level by tonight and another
advisory can't be ruled out later today if observations come in
higher than predicted. Buoy observations to the south reflect a
slight upward trend in the 15 sec band this morning, which
supports the surf trending back up through the day. This new
pulse should peak this evening through Wednesday, then ease
through the second half of the week.

Surf along east facing shores will steadily trend up through the
week as the local and upstream trades increase. This should result
in rough conditions for easterly exposures by and through the
weekend. Confidence remains low for any long-period pulse locally
associated with Tropical Storm Celia in the far eastern Pacific.

Surf along north facing shores will remain at seasonal levels
(near flat) through the week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Bedal
MARINE...Gibbs

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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