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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

579
FXHW60 PHFO 010141
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
341 PM HST WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Madeline will pass by just south of The Big Island
overnight then depart to the west of the Big Island on Thursday,
then track south of the other islands through Thursday night,
bringing a breezy to windy trade wind weather pattern to portions
of state. The weather pattern over the weekend will be highly
dependent on the track and intensity of Hurricane Lester. Once the
effects of Lester exit the area, a typical trade wind weather
pattern will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Madeline will be passing by just south of The Big
Island overnight before moving away to the west Thursday and
Thursday night. Heavy rain and strong winds can be expected for
some areas especially over portions of The Big Island and to a
lesser extent over Maui County. For more details on the effects of
Madeline, please refer to the latest Hurricane Local Statement on
Madeline (HFOHLSHFO).

For the rest of the state, a breezy trade wind weather pattern
can be expected as high pressure remains north of the state. Winds
could become strong and gusty in places due the the pressure
gradient between the the high and Madeline. Clouds and passing
showers will tend to favor windward and mauka areas with a few
showers moving over to leeward areas at times.

After the effects of Madeline depart the area, a rather typical
trade wind weather pattern is expected Friday and on into early
Saturday. After that, the weather across the area will be highly
dependent on the track and intensity of Hurricane Lester. Strong
winds and heavy rains could once again make a return across
portions of the area.

After the effects of Lester move away from the area, a rather
typical trade wind weather pattern will return across the area.
Clouds and some passing showers will favor windward and mauka
areas with most leeward areas remaining rather dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
At 00Z, the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was approximately
100 miles S of PHTO. Tropical storm force winds are expected over
portions of the Big Island and Maui County tonight. The VAD wind
profile from Big Island radars PHWA- South Point shows 40 KT winds
through much of the layer through 18 thousand feet. MVFR with
periods of IFR conditions will continue along most of the eastern
portion of the Big Island as Madeline moves west southwest.
AIRMET SIERRA for tempo IFR conditions over windward Big Island
will remain into tonight.

See TC SIGMET series ROMEO for area regarding turbulence and
icing associated with Madeline.

Conditions over the smaller islands will deteriorate tonight as
outer moisture from Madeline pushes showers with MVFR conditions
into the area. AIRMET SIERRA for mountain obscuration is posted
along north and east sections of all islands. The tightening
gradient between Madeline and the surface high pressure north of
the state will allow for an increase in the northeasterly trade
winds. AIRMET TANGO for tempo moderate turbulence over and
immediately south through west of the mountains is posted for all
of the smaller islands.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be highly dependent on the track and intensity
of Madeline and will be highly variable from one location to
another. The strongest winds will be near the center of the system
but strong winds may occur well away from the center due to
terrain effects. Winds and seas will gradually diminish after the
passage of Madeline.

High surf can be expected along east facing shores in association
with Madeline. The largest waves will be along east facing shores
of The Big Island with heights becoming lower as you go up the
island chain. There will also be a bit of an increase along some
south and west facing shores once the system moves west of The Big
Island.

Strong winds, high seas and large surf will once again increase
across many areas beginning Thursday in association with Hurricane
Lester. Specific conditions will be highly dependent on the track
and intensity of the system.

Winds, seas and surf will diminish after the passage of Lester
with a typical trade wind pattern setting up.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai Windward-
Oahu Koolau-Olomana-Molokai Windward-Maui Windward West.

Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Big Island.

Tropical Storm Warning for Molokai-Lanai-Kahoolawe-Maui-Big
Island.

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Thursday for Windward Haleakala.

Tropical Storm Warning for Maui County Windward Waters-Maui
County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel.

&&

$$

Synopsis/Discussion/Marine...Burke
Aviation...Morrison

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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