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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
742
FXHW60 PHFO 221411
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...WITH ONSHORE SEA BREEZES
DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY RETURN OVER THE ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON UNDER DAY TIME HEATING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST AND
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO
RETURN TO THE ISLANDS. TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING...KEEPING LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS. NIGHT-TIME LAND
BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED BUT BROUGHT ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING TO THE
ISLAND SKIES AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LINGERING IN THE ISLAND VICINITY HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR
DATA INDICATE FEWER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. LOW CLOUDS..ON THE OTHER HAND...ARE
A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH
EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARGINALLY STABLE
AIR MASS...THOUGH HILO SOUNDING IS STILL A BIT MORE MOIST THAN
LIHUE/S. SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER MORNING ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMITS HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO THIS EVENING. AS THE
SURFACE LOW LINGERS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TODAY...CONVECTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT ONCE AGAIN. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY
INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER DAY
TIME HEATING AS WELL AS CONVERGING SEA BREEZES.
THE LOW NORTH OF THE STATE WILL FINALLY MOVE WEST AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO
THE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. A RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. IN TURN...TRADE
WINDS AS WELL AS TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL RETURN SLOWLY TO THE
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS TO
THE AREA. MOREOVER...TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE STATE OVER
THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
TIGHTENS. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS
SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING MORE TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS NORTH OF THE AREA. TRADE WIND
WEATHER...POSSIBLE WETTER THAN USUAL...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
ISLANDS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL PROBABLY PREVAIL THROUGH REST OF TODAY. POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILING
CONDITIONS TO SOME TAF SITES. THERE MAY ALSO BE LOCAL MVFR VIS
CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF PHTO DUE TO VOLCANIC EMISSIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL CONTINUES ITS DOWNWARD TREND...THOUGH IT
WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS TODAY. THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS REACHED
OAHU OVERNIGHT...BRINGING QUITE ELEVATED SURF FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS SWELL WILL PEAK LATER
TODAY...THEN SUBSIDE IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS.
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH BY THE WEEKEND FOR
SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WINDIER COASTAL
WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.
&&
$$
HUI
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
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It was last modified on: Tue, Sep 21 2010 - 2314 UTC
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