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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 171358

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
358 AM HST Sat Mar 17 2018

Expect a brief reprieve in the humidity as the trade winds make
a return over the next couple of days. A band of showers will
bring an uptick in trade showers tonight through Sunday. A front
stalling west of Kauai by the middle of next week will bring back
the southeast winds, which in turn, will raise the humidity level,
and the possibility of some wet weather for the second half of the
work week.


It has been a rather quiet night with fair skies and light winds
reigning the area. A patch of low clouds embedded in the trade
wind flow will be making landfall shortly there at the Puna
district of the Big Island. Expect a few light showers with these
clouds this morning. This same trade winds over the eastern end
of the island chain will be spreading westward to the smaller
islands throughout today. The trade will be light enough this
morning to allow for the development of a sea breeze along the
wind sheltered leeward shoreline and interior areas of the
smaller islands. This will lead to some spotty afternoon clouds
and isolated showers over these locations. Light to moderate
trades will be filling in before sunset, chasing away these clouds
and showers.

The islands could be facing a showery Sunday as a band of showers
make its way down the island chain from the north later tonight.
First to be affected is Kauai, mostly after midnight. Oahu is
next, arriving around sunrise Sunday. The band will then work its
way down to Maui county Sunday afternoon and evening, and lastly,
reaching the Big Island late Sunday night into Monday. Moderate
trade winds fills in behind the band, along with some scattered
showers, which will continue into Monday.

A front stalling just west of Kauai will cause a shift in the
winds to the southeast over Kauai county on Tuesday, while
moderate trades prevail elsewhere. The humidity level will rise
with this slight change in wind direction. Vog was mentioned to
return as well, but there could be a chance that it will not since
the wind has more of an east component. We will take another look
at the winds again before making any alterations.

The GFS contend the wet weather starts with Kauai as early as
Tuesday night and gets progressively wetter into Thursday along
with showers spreading to the remaining smaller islands in
association with a band of showers. The new ECMWF run agrees with
the GFS, but does not show the band moving down on the remaining
smaller islands, and thus the remaining islands are dry. There are
other subtle differences between these two models, such as one
model shows a shortwave trough, and the other doesn't. The front
is a very slow mover toward the east. This means the inclement
weather will likely spread to the other islands and extending it
into next weekend. There is a degree of uncertainty as of now, but
the similarity the two models early on do tell us that Kauai is
once again targeted for some heavy weather around the middle of
the week.


Predominant VFR conditions into the morning hours with isolated
MVFR conditions. Land breezes are expected in most locations into
the morning hours. Trade winds will gradually work back into
place throughout the day. When that happens we will expect to see
the return of isolated MVFR conditions along the windward slopes
as clouds build and some lead to showers.

No Airmets are currently in effect.


No marine warnings are expected for the next day or two. After
trade winds return by this afternoon and evening, a moderate wind
regime is expected to persist into Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory-
level winds may return through the channels around the Big Island
and Maui County Sunday and Monday. Winds will begin to shift
towards the southeast once again late Tuesday through the second
half of the upcoming week as a front approaches from the west and
stalls, likely bringing another wet period with heavy showers back
across the coastal waters.

A series of small northwest swells has begun filling in across the
area. Surf will remain well below advisory levels with these swells
over the next several days.

A broad low is forecast to develop and move into the northeast
Pacific late this weekend and direct a large swath of gale force
winds towards the islands. This should translate to a building
north-northeast swell late Tuesday. This could bring advisory
level surf to north and east facing shores.

Small long period south swells should provide above null surf for
the south facing shores over the next few days.






Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman