NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
889
FXHW60 PHFO 151352
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
352 AM HST Thu Jan 15 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving through the islands in Maui County this
morning continues to spread showers and gusty winds as the
frontal band passes through each island. Wind directions shift
to a cooler and drier northerly direction after frontal passage
today. Cool, moderate to breezy northeasterly winds on Friday
will veer more easterly by this weekend. Another cold front will
move down the island chain from next week Wednesday through
Thursday, producing yet another round of wet rainy weather across
the state.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Shower bands moving through the islands along the leading edge of
a cold front has produced a good amount of measurable storm total
rainfall over Kauai and Oahu, ranging from 1/2 to over 2 inches
in some locations over the past 12 to 18 hours. Expect these
showers to continue with slightly decreasing rainfall amounts,
over Molokai, Lanai and Maui this morning, and eventually into
portions of the Big Island later today. Satellite imagery this
morning shows the back edge of the cold frontal cloud band
clearing out over Kauai and Niihau. Expect cooler and more stable
northerly winds with decreasing shower trends spreading eastward
through the morning hours. These improving weather conditions will
spread to all islands later this evening.
The Wind Advisory for strong southerly wind gusts at lower
elevations was cancelled this morning as the southerly wind gust
threat diminishes statewide. However, strong upper level winds
will continue over the highest mountain summits on Maui and the
Big Island through the day. Strong and gusty winds just below
advisory levels remains in the forecast for Haleakala National
Park on Maui, just below our summit wind advisory thresholds. The
highest summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa on the Big Island will
see the strongest winds with this event, and Wind Advisories
remain in effect until 6 PM this evening for both summits. Brief
periods of icing conditions are also possible on these higher
elevation Big Island summits today.
High pressure building in behind the front will herald a return to
drier and more stable northeasterly trade winds on Friday,
becoming more easterly trade winds from Saturday into Sunday. This
drier air moving in after frontal passage will produce much
cooler temperatures for all islands, especially during the
overnight hours when the drier atmosphere can more efficiently
radiate heat into outer space. These lower humidity levels and
cooler overnight to early morning temperatures will linger into
the weekend.
Another round of wet weather remains in the long range forecast
for the middle of next week. The latest extended model forecast
guidance continues to show good agreement on another period of
cloudy skies and wet weather as yet another cold front moves
eastward down the island chain. Stay tuned as the island by
island weather impacts from this next frontal band will likely
evolve over time.
&&
.AVIATION...
A cold front will move through Maui County this morning, then push
through the Big Island this afternoon. A line of showers with
reduced cigs/vsbys can be expected in association with the front,
with VFR conditions developing fairly quickly behind the
front.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across
Oahu and Maui County. Conditions should improve across Oahu later
this morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low level turbulence over and
downwind of the terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will likely
remain in place through the day.
Tempo light icing is also mentioned in AIRMET Zulu. Conditions
should improve later this morning.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front over the central waters early this morning will
continue to move from west to east across the coastal waters
today. Southerly winds ahead of the front will transition to
northwesterly behind the frontal passage. Meanwhile, an extra
large northwest swell will generate large seas through Friday for
exposed waters. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been expanded
to all Hawaiian waters and extended in time through Friday
afternoon for combined seas above 10 feet, winds strengthening to
25 kt, or both. A high pressure system moving far north of the
islands will bring back easterly trade winds across Hawaiian
waters from Friday through Sunday. Winds will then become weaker
and more southeasterly early next week as the next front
approaches.
An extra large, medium to long period northwest (320-340 degrees)
swell will fill in this morning, peak this afternoon into the
evening, then slowly fade through Friday. Latest observations from
NW Hawaii buoy 51001 early this morning show that wave heights
have significantly increased to near 18 feet thus far. A High
Surf Warning is now in effect through Friday for exposed north and
west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north
facing shores of Maui. Additionally, a High Surf Advisory has been
issued for west facing shores of the Big Island. This swell will
gradually transition to become more northerly (350-010 degrees) as
it fades into the weekend. Surf along north and west facing
shores will then linger near advisory levels Saturday before
another reinforcing northwest swell briefly boosts surf heights
back to near warning levels on Sunday and Sunday night.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small, though will
increase slightly by Friday as trades become re-established across
the area. Additionally, some east facing shores sensitive to
northerly swells may experience a slight uptick in surf heights
this weekend as the fading northwesterly swell becomes more
northerly. No noteworthy swells are expected for the next few days
for south facing shores.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Friday for north and west facing
shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of
Maui.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for west facing shores of
the Big Island.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits
of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for all Hawaiian
waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Jelsema
MARINE...Vaughan
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
889
FXHW60 PHFO 151352
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
352 AM HST Thu Jan 15 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving through the islands in Maui County this
morning continues to spread showers and gusty winds as the
frontal band passes through each island. Wind directions shift
to a cooler and drier northerly direction after frontal passage
today. Cool, moderate to breezy northeasterly winds on Friday
will veer more easterly by this weekend. Another cold front will
move down the island chain from next week Wednesday through
Thursday, producing yet another round of wet rainy weather across
the state.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Shower bands moving through the islands along the leading edge of
a cold front has produced a good amount of measurable storm total
rainfall over Kauai and Oahu, ranging from 1/2 to over 2 inches
in some locations over the past 12 to 18 hours. Expect these
showers to continue with slightly decreasing rainfall amounts,
over Molokai, Lanai and Maui this morning, and eventually into
portions of the Big Island later today. Satellite imagery this
morning shows the back edge of the cold frontal cloud band
clearing out over Kauai and Niihau. Expect cooler and more stable
northerly winds with decreasing shower trends spreading eastward
through the morning hours. These improving weather conditions will
spread to all islands later this evening.
The Wind Advisory for strong southerly wind gusts at lower
elevations was cancelled this morning as the southerly wind gust
threat diminishes statewide. However, strong upper level winds
will continue over the highest mountain summits on Maui and the
Big Island through the day. Strong and gusty winds just below
advisory levels remains in the forecast for Haleakala National
Park on Maui, just below our summit wind advisory thresholds. The
highest summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa on the Big Island will
see the strongest winds with this event, and Wind Advisories
remain in effect until 6 PM this evening for both summits. Brief
periods of icing conditions are also possible on these higher
elevation Big Island summits today.
High pressure building in behind the front will herald a return to
drier and more stable northeasterly trade winds on Friday,
becoming more easterly trade winds from Saturday into Sunday. This
drier air moving in after frontal passage will produce much
cooler temperatures for all islands, especially during the
overnight hours when the drier atmosphere can more efficiently
radiate heat into outer space. These lower humidity levels and
cooler overnight to early morning temperatures will linger into
the weekend.
Another round of wet weather remains in the long range forecast
for the middle of next week. The latest extended model forecast
guidance continues to show good agreement on another period of
cloudy skies and wet weather as yet another cold front moves
eastward down the island chain. Stay tuned as the island by
island weather impacts from this next frontal band will likely
evolve over time.
&&
.AVIATION...
A cold front will move through Maui County this morning, then push
through the Big Island this afternoon. A line of showers with
reduced cigs/vsbys can be expected in association with the front,
with VFR conditions developing fairly quickly behind the
front.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across
Oahu and Maui County. Conditions should improve across Oahu later
this morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low level turbulence over and
downwind of the terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will likely
remain in place through the day.
Tempo light icing is also mentioned in AIRMET Zulu. Conditions
should improve later this morning.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front over the central waters early this morning will
continue to move from west to east across the coastal waters
today. Southerly winds ahead of the front will transition to
northwesterly behind the frontal passage. Meanwhile, an extra
large northwest swell will generate large seas through Friday for
exposed waters. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been expanded
to all Hawaiian waters and extended in time through Friday
afternoon for combined seas above 10 feet, winds strengthening to
25 kt, or both. A high pressure system moving far north of the
islands will bring back easterly trade winds across Hawaiian
waters from Friday through Sunday. Winds will then become weaker
and more southeasterly early next week as the next front
approaches.
An extra large, medium to long period northwest (320-340 degrees)
swell will fill in this morning, peak this afternoon into the
evening, then slowly fade through Friday. Latest observations from
NW Hawaii buoy 51001 early this morning show that wave heights
have significantly increased to near 18 feet thus far. A High
Surf Warning is now in effect through Friday for exposed north and
west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north
facing shores of Maui. Additionally, a High Surf Advisory has been
issued for west facing shores of the Big Island. This swell will
gradually transition to become more northerly (350-010 degrees) as
it fades into the weekend. Surf along north and west facing
shores will then linger near advisory levels Saturday before
another reinforcing northwest swell briefly boosts surf heights
back to near warning levels on Sunday and Sunday night.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small, though will
increase slightly by Friday as trades become re-established across
the area. Additionally, some east facing shores sensitive to
northerly swells may experience a slight uptick in surf heights
this weekend as the fading northwesterly swell becomes more
northerly. No noteworthy swells are expected for the next few days
for south facing shores.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Friday for north and west facing
shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of
Maui.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for west facing shores of
the Big Island.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits
of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for all Hawaiian
waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Jelsema
MARINE...Vaughan
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office