NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
644
FXHW60 PHFO 231314
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
314 AM HST Thu May 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will linger over the
islands through the upcoming weekend. Clouds and showers will
favor typical windward and mauka areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Aside from some scattered showers over the Oahu and Kauai leeward
waters; satellite and radar imagery continues to show low clouds
and showers over mainly windward and mauka areas with patchy high
clouds across the region early this morning. As expected, winds
across the state have turned easterly overnight as the trough
west of Kauai moves further away and the 1036 mb high currently
1300 miles north-northeast of Honolulu slowly drifts west.
Not much has changed with the forecast through the upcoming
weekend. Moderate to breezy easterly trades will continue into the
weekend as a series of reinforcing highs build to our north.
Guidance continues to show drier air filtering into the region
over the next couple of days resulting in a stable trade wind
pattern. Expect mainly windward and mauka showers, with showers
increasing in intensity and coverage during the overnight and
early morning hours. A few of these showers may briefly spill over
into leeward areas.
The biggest change to the forecast revolves around the evolution
of the trough to the west of Kauai over the weekend. Guidance now
shows the trough somewhat lingering in the region through early
next week. This may cause the winds over the western end of the
state to weaken slightly and become more southeasterly by early
next week resulting in localized land/sea breezes across sheltered
leeward areas of Oahu and Kauai. Otherwise, expect windward and
mauka showers to continue through next week under moderate to
locally breeze east to southeast winds.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will blow across the
Hawaiian Islands today. Isolated to scattered showers today will
favor the windward slopes. Brief MVFR conditions are possible in
moderate showers.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for
windward areas of Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island. Low cloud
ceilings should decrease in coverage later this morning leading to
cancelling this AIRMET for most of the affected areas.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will gradually build westward well to the north of
the state through Friday, strengthening the trade winds across
the island chain. Fresh to strong trade winds over the eastern end
of the state will expand westward over the Oahu and Kauai waters
today and hold at those levels through Friday. A Small Craft
Advisory is now in effect for most waters around Maui and the Big
Island through 6 AM Friday, and for the windier areas through 6
PM Saturday.
A trough of low pressure will amplify to the west of the islands
this weekend and linger into early next week. This may ease the
trades and shift them around to a more east-southeasterly
direction over the western end of the state, while moderate to
strong easterly trades prevail over the eastern waters.
South shore surf will remain small and below the summertime
average through the middle of next week, with only small
inconsistent pulses of southwest swell expected. The next
significant south-southwest swell appears to move in late next
week.
East shore surf will remain near the seasonal average through
Friday. A slight decrease is expected this weekend through the
middle of next week as the trades ease over and upstream of the
islands. Surf along north shores will remain very small with a
slight bump possible late Sunday through Monday.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maui County
Windward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ahue
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Jelsema
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
644
FXHW60 PHFO 231314
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
314 AM HST Thu May 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will linger over the
islands through the upcoming weekend. Clouds and showers will
favor typical windward and mauka areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Aside from some scattered showers over the Oahu and Kauai leeward
waters; satellite and radar imagery continues to show low clouds
and showers over mainly windward and mauka areas with patchy high
clouds across the region early this morning. As expected, winds
across the state have turned easterly overnight as the trough
west of Kauai moves further away and the 1036 mb high currently
1300 miles north-northeast of Honolulu slowly drifts west.
Not much has changed with the forecast through the upcoming
weekend. Moderate to breezy easterly trades will continue into the
weekend as a series of reinforcing highs build to our north.
Guidance continues to show drier air filtering into the region
over the next couple of days resulting in a stable trade wind
pattern. Expect mainly windward and mauka showers, with showers
increasing in intensity and coverage during the overnight and
early morning hours. A few of these showers may briefly spill over
into leeward areas.
The biggest change to the forecast revolves around the evolution
of the trough to the west of Kauai over the weekend. Guidance now
shows the trough somewhat lingering in the region through early
next week. This may cause the winds over the western end of the
state to weaken slightly and become more southeasterly by early
next week resulting in localized land/sea breezes across sheltered
leeward areas of Oahu and Kauai. Otherwise, expect windward and
mauka showers to continue through next week under moderate to
locally breeze east to southeast winds.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will blow across the
Hawaiian Islands today. Isolated to scattered showers today will
favor the windward slopes. Brief MVFR conditions are possible in
moderate showers.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for
windward areas of Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island. Low cloud
ceilings should decrease in coverage later this morning leading to
cancelling this AIRMET for most of the affected areas.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will gradually build westward well to the north of
the state through Friday, strengthening the trade winds across
the island chain. Fresh to strong trade winds over the eastern end
of the state will expand westward over the Oahu and Kauai waters
today and hold at those levels through Friday. A Small Craft
Advisory is now in effect for most waters around Maui and the Big
Island through 6 AM Friday, and for the windier areas through 6
PM Saturday.
A trough of low pressure will amplify to the west of the islands
this weekend and linger into early next week. This may ease the
trades and shift them around to a more east-southeasterly
direction over the western end of the state, while moderate to
strong easterly trades prevail over the eastern waters.
South shore surf will remain small and below the summertime
average through the middle of next week, with only small
inconsistent pulses of southwest swell expected. The next
significant south-southwest swell appears to move in late next
week.
East shore surf will remain near the seasonal average through
Friday. A slight decrease is expected this weekend through the
middle of next week as the trades ease over and upstream of the
islands. Surf along north shores will remain very small with a
slight bump possible late Sunday through Monday.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maui County
Windward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ahue
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Jelsema
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office