NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
731
FXHW60 PHFO 031959
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
959 AM HST Mon Jun 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will persist through Wednesday, then diminish and become
light and variable for the second half of the week. The island
atmosphere will be unstable the next couple of days, so windward
trade showers will be a little more active than normal.
Additionally, daytime heating of the slopes on the Big Island and
Maui will bring the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. A trend
toward much drier weather will start Wednesday, and continue through
the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Breezy and somewhat wet trade wind weather the next couple of days
will trend much drier after mid-week as winds diminish and a ridge
aloft builds over the area.
In the meantime, a mid- and upper-level low centered just E of the
islands will drift W today, stall near the islands through Tuesday,
then move E on Wednesday. Although the atmosphere is not especially
moist, the low has prompted the development of isolated, but
somewhat unusual, high-based thunderstorms a couple hundred miles E
of the islands, due to steep mid- and upper-level lapse rates.
As the low's associated cold pool moves closer to the islands,
instability will increase, and the forecast contains a mention of
isolated thunderstorms over Maui/Big Island slopes the next 1/2
afternoons respectively. Otherwise, windward showers may be a little
more active than normal. The low will weaken and move E Wednesday as
a strong mid-level ridge builds over the area from the NW, leading
to a very stable island atmosphere, and significantly lowering
inversion heights/rainfall chances.
A surface ridge N of the islands will remain nearly stationary
through Tuesday, supporting locally breezy trade winds. On Wednesday
and Thursday, unseasonably strong low pressure rapidly developing N
of the area will weaken the high and displace the ridge southward
over the islands, with winds becoming light and variable Thursday
and Friday. The ridge will gradually strengthen and move N over the
weekend, and light to moderate trade winds are expected. With
relatively light winds and a stable atmosphere, a mostly dry regime
is anticipated.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally strong trades will deliver clouds and showers to
windward and mauka zones through today. MVFR conditions are most
likely this morning with improvement expected by early afternoon.
The arrival of elevated instability favors a chance for isolated
thunderstorms over interior and upslope sections of the Big Island
and Mount Haleakala on Maui.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect.
AIRMET Tango for lee turb remains in effect.
AMD NOT SKED for PMDY as equipment remains unavailable with no time
table for return to service.
&&
.MARINE...
Broad high pressure north of the state will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds through Tuesday, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) in
effect for all waters around the Big Island and Maui County and
select areas around Oahu and Kauai. Trades will decline Tuesday
night and Wednesday as the ridge of high pressure is weakened and
pushed southward, and the SCA will will likely be trimmed back to
the typical windy waters around the Big Island and Maui. The ridge
will erode further and be displaced farther south near Kauai
Thursday into Friday, causing the trades to diminish significantly
and possibly become disrupted. The SCA will be dropped completely by
this time. Increasing moderate trades are expected during the
weekend.
An extended run of southerly swell will persist this week and almost
certainly through mid June. The current south-southwest swell is
peaking today at around 3 feet 15 seconds, leading to surf near the
10 foot High Surf Advisory level. This swell will gradually decline
Tuesday into Thursday. Another south-southwest swell will arrive
late Thursday and Friday, and as this swell declines, a larger swell
will move during the weekend and into early next week. A potentially
larger swell is looking increasingly likely late next week.
A small, long-period north swell will fill in through the day and
continue peak late tonight and Tuesday, with the potential for a
small follow-up swell later in the week. The fresh to strong trade
wind flow is producing elevated seas of 7 to 8 feet at 7 to 8
seconds. As trade winds decline Wednesday onward, rough surf along
east facing shores will decline well below seasonal average.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward
Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward
Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Birchard
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Wroe
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
731
FXHW60 PHFO 031959
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
959 AM HST Mon Jun 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will persist through Wednesday, then diminish and become
light and variable for the second half of the week. The island
atmosphere will be unstable the next couple of days, so windward
trade showers will be a little more active than normal.
Additionally, daytime heating of the slopes on the Big Island and
Maui will bring the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. A trend
toward much drier weather will start Wednesday, and continue through
the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Breezy and somewhat wet trade wind weather the next couple of days
will trend much drier after mid-week as winds diminish and a ridge
aloft builds over the area.
In the meantime, a mid- and upper-level low centered just E of the
islands will drift W today, stall near the islands through Tuesday,
then move E on Wednesday. Although the atmosphere is not especially
moist, the low has prompted the development of isolated, but
somewhat unusual, high-based thunderstorms a couple hundred miles E
of the islands, due to steep mid- and upper-level lapse rates.
As the low's associated cold pool moves closer to the islands,
instability will increase, and the forecast contains a mention of
isolated thunderstorms over Maui/Big Island slopes the next 1/2
afternoons respectively. Otherwise, windward showers may be a little
more active than normal. The low will weaken and move E Wednesday as
a strong mid-level ridge builds over the area from the NW, leading
to a very stable island atmosphere, and significantly lowering
inversion heights/rainfall chances.
A surface ridge N of the islands will remain nearly stationary
through Tuesday, supporting locally breezy trade winds. On Wednesday
and Thursday, unseasonably strong low pressure rapidly developing N
of the area will weaken the high and displace the ridge southward
over the islands, with winds becoming light and variable Thursday
and Friday. The ridge will gradually strengthen and move N over the
weekend, and light to moderate trade winds are expected. With
relatively light winds and a stable atmosphere, a mostly dry regime
is anticipated.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally strong trades will deliver clouds and showers to
windward and mauka zones through today. MVFR conditions are most
likely this morning with improvement expected by early afternoon.
The arrival of elevated instability favors a chance for isolated
thunderstorms over interior and upslope sections of the Big Island
and Mount Haleakala on Maui.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect.
AIRMET Tango for lee turb remains in effect.
AMD NOT SKED for PMDY as equipment remains unavailable with no time
table for return to service.
&&
.MARINE...
Broad high pressure north of the state will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds through Tuesday, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) in
effect for all waters around the Big Island and Maui County and
select areas around Oahu and Kauai. Trades will decline Tuesday
night and Wednesday as the ridge of high pressure is weakened and
pushed southward, and the SCA will will likely be trimmed back to
the typical windy waters around the Big Island and Maui. The ridge
will erode further and be displaced farther south near Kauai
Thursday into Friday, causing the trades to diminish significantly
and possibly become disrupted. The SCA will be dropped completely by
this time. Increasing moderate trades are expected during the
weekend.
An extended run of southerly swell will persist this week and almost
certainly through mid June. The current south-southwest swell is
peaking today at around 3 feet 15 seconds, leading to surf near the
10 foot High Surf Advisory level. This swell will gradually decline
Tuesday into Thursday. Another south-southwest swell will arrive
late Thursday and Friday, and as this swell declines, a larger swell
will move during the weekend and into early next week. A potentially
larger swell is looking increasingly likely late next week.
A small, long-period north swell will fill in through the day and
continue peak late tonight and Tuesday, with the potential for a
small follow-up swell later in the week. The fresh to strong trade
wind flow is producing elevated seas of 7 to 8 feet at 7 to 8
seconds. As trade winds decline Wednesday onward, rough surf along
east facing shores will decline well below seasonal average.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward
Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward
Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Birchard
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Wroe
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office