NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
678
FXHW60 PHFO 061315
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
315 AM HST Thu Jun 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface ridge will remain just north of Kauai during the next
couple days, keeping the trades light and allowing for land and
sea breezes to form across much of the state. The ridge will lift
northward this weekend allowing the trades to gradually
strengthen, with moderate to locally breezy conditions returning
Sunday through the middle of next week. Very dry conditions will
greatly limit shower activity through the weekend, with a slight
increase in windward showers expected Monday and Tuesday. A more
typical trade wind pattern should return by the middle of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a east to west oriented ridge of high
pressure has settled southward to around 150 miles north of
Kauai, and this has weakened the trades with land breezes present
in many leeward areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows scattered
to broken low clouds across the area resulting in partly to mostly
cloudy skies. Radar imagery and rain gage observations show very
dry conditions remain in place across the state. Main short term
focus continues to revolve around trade wind trends during the
next several days.
The ridge of high pressure north of the state will shift
southward to a location just north of Kauai today through Friday,
keeping the trades light and allowing for land and sea breezes to
be common across much of the state. The ridge will begin to lift
northward over the weekend allowing the trades to gradually
strengthen, with moderate to locally breezy conditions expected
Sunday through the middle of next week.
As for the remaining weather details, very stable and dry
conditions remain over the island chain, as evident in the sharp
trade wind inversions, at or below 4 kft at both Hilo and Lihue
during the 12z soundings. Little change in the trade wind
inversion is expected through the weekend, which will greatly
limit shower activity across the entire state. The trade wind
inversion will begin to lift early next week, which should bring a
slight increase in trade wind showers Monday and Tuesday, while
still remaining drier than normal for this time of year. A more
typical trade wind pattern should return by the middle of next
week as the trade wind inversion rises further.
&&
.AVIATION...
Trade winds will gradually weaken over the next twenty-four hours
as the pressure gradient across the Islands relaxes further. This
will allow sea breezes to predominate along leeward coasts in the
afternoon and early evening hours. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging
building in from the east will make for an increasingly drier air
mass later in the week.
A strong inversion aloft around 04 kft will both encourage
morning low clouds and inhibit afternoon shower development. Low
clouds have persisted overnight across the state, especially
along windward coasts of the Big Island and Maui. AIRMET Sierra is
currently in effect for mountain obscuration along northeast
slopes of the Big Island. Conditions are expected to improve
around noon due to daytime heating. Limited shower development is
expected over interior portions of the Big Island in the late
afternoon and early evening.
&&
.MARINE...
The ridge to the north of the islands continues to slowly sink
southward, weakening the trade winds over the region. Expect winds
to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through the end
of the week. Over the weekend, the ridge will lift to the north,
allowing moderate trade winds to build back. Guidance shows the
potential for a SCA to return for the typical windier waters
around Maui County and the Big Island by Sunday.
The south Pacific remains active sending consecutive pulses to
south facing shores of Hawaii over the first half of the month.
Surf has leveled off overnight but another south- southwest swell
is expected to arrive later today and peak Friday. A moderate
long period south- southwest swell will build into this weekend,
peaking Sunday night into Monday near High Surf Advisory levels.
Late next week, a moderate long period south swell is expected to
reach HSA levels. Stay tuned as the storm continues to develop.
The current small northwest swell continues to decline. Another
small pulse from the northwest is expected to build through
this afternoon keeping surf elevated. Wind waves for east facing
shores have diminished significantly and this trend looks to
continue into the weekend.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Bedal
MARINE...Shigesato
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
678
FXHW60 PHFO 061315
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
315 AM HST Thu Jun 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface ridge will remain just north of Kauai during the next
couple days, keeping the trades light and allowing for land and
sea breezes to form across much of the state. The ridge will lift
northward this weekend allowing the trades to gradually
strengthen, with moderate to locally breezy conditions returning
Sunday through the middle of next week. Very dry conditions will
greatly limit shower activity through the weekend, with a slight
increase in windward showers expected Monday and Tuesday. A more
typical trade wind pattern should return by the middle of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a east to west oriented ridge of high
pressure has settled southward to around 150 miles north of
Kauai, and this has weakened the trades with land breezes present
in many leeward areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows scattered
to broken low clouds across the area resulting in partly to mostly
cloudy skies. Radar imagery and rain gage observations show very
dry conditions remain in place across the state. Main short term
focus continues to revolve around trade wind trends during the
next several days.
The ridge of high pressure north of the state will shift
southward to a location just north of Kauai today through Friday,
keeping the trades light and allowing for land and sea breezes to
be common across much of the state. The ridge will begin to lift
northward over the weekend allowing the trades to gradually
strengthen, with moderate to locally breezy conditions expected
Sunday through the middle of next week.
As for the remaining weather details, very stable and dry
conditions remain over the island chain, as evident in the sharp
trade wind inversions, at or below 4 kft at both Hilo and Lihue
during the 12z soundings. Little change in the trade wind
inversion is expected through the weekend, which will greatly
limit shower activity across the entire state. The trade wind
inversion will begin to lift early next week, which should bring a
slight increase in trade wind showers Monday and Tuesday, while
still remaining drier than normal for this time of year. A more
typical trade wind pattern should return by the middle of next
week as the trade wind inversion rises further.
&&
.AVIATION...
Trade winds will gradually weaken over the next twenty-four hours
as the pressure gradient across the Islands relaxes further. This
will allow sea breezes to predominate along leeward coasts in the
afternoon and early evening hours. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging
building in from the east will make for an increasingly drier air
mass later in the week.
A strong inversion aloft around 04 kft will both encourage
morning low clouds and inhibit afternoon shower development. Low
clouds have persisted overnight across the state, especially
along windward coasts of the Big Island and Maui. AIRMET Sierra is
currently in effect for mountain obscuration along northeast
slopes of the Big Island. Conditions are expected to improve
around noon due to daytime heating. Limited shower development is
expected over interior portions of the Big Island in the late
afternoon and early evening.
&&
.MARINE...
The ridge to the north of the islands continues to slowly sink
southward, weakening the trade winds over the region. Expect winds
to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through the end
of the week. Over the weekend, the ridge will lift to the north,
allowing moderate trade winds to build back. Guidance shows the
potential for a SCA to return for the typical windier waters
around Maui County and the Big Island by Sunday.
The south Pacific remains active sending consecutive pulses to
south facing shores of Hawaii over the first half of the month.
Surf has leveled off overnight but another south- southwest swell
is expected to arrive later today and peak Friday. A moderate
long period south- southwest swell will build into this weekend,
peaking Sunday night into Monday near High Surf Advisory levels.
Late next week, a moderate long period south swell is expected to
reach HSA levels. Stay tuned as the storm continues to develop.
The current small northwest swell continues to decline. Another
small pulse from the northwest is expected to build through
this afternoon keeping surf elevated. Wind waves for east facing
shores have diminished significantly and this trend looks to
continue into the weekend.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Bedal
MARINE...Shigesato
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office