NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans:
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
768
FXHW60 PHFO 030622
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
822 PM HST Sun Jun 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades will continue through Tuesday, before easing
Wednesday and giving way to sea and land breezes Thursday and
Friday. A wet trade wind pattern will continue tonight and early
Monday, otherwise trade wind showers will be on the decrease
through the middle of the week as a more stable airmass gradually
settles overhead. Over the Big Island however, a disturbance aloft
may allow for a thunderstorm or two to develop each afternoon
through Tuesday. Very dry conditions will overspread the islands
Thursday and linger through next weekend, greatly limiting shower
activity across the entire state.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1029 mb high is centered around 925
miles northeast of Honolulu, driving breezy trade winds across the
island chain. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy
conditions for most windward and mauka areas, with partly cloudy
skies in most leeward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered to
numerous showers affecting windward slopes and coasts, with some
of these showers spilling Leeward at times. Main short term focus
revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances.
The high to the northeast of the islands will weaken as it shifts
southeastward during the next few days, with the ridge axis then
moving over or very near the western islands Thursday and Friday.
Breezy trade winds will continue through Tuesday, before easing
into the moderate range for Wednesday. The winds are then expected
to become light and variable over the smaller islands Thursday
and Friday, allowing for daytime sea breezes and overnight land
breezes to be dominant. Meanwhile, light trades will likely hold
in the unprotected areas of the Big Island. The surface ridge axis
is forecast to shift northward next weekend, which should bring a
return and gradual strengthening of the trade winds.
As for the remaining weather details, a band of low clouds moving
into the islands this evening, will keep rather wet conditions in
place over windward slopes and coasts overnight into Monday
morning. We should see a typical reduction in trade wind shower
coverage by late morning into the afternoon hours, and instability
aloft will likely allow for a thunderstorm or two to pop over the
Big Island. Fairly typical trade wind weather should then continue
Monday night into Tuesday morning, with the trade wind inversion
then crashing down to around 5 kft greatly limiting trade wind
showers for Tuesday afternoon. Once again, instability aloft will
likely allow a thunderstorm or two to pop over the Big Island
interior during the afternoon hours. Rather dry trade wind
weather will continue Tuesday night through Wednesday night as
the trade wind inversion holds around 5 kft, with most leeward
areas not seeing any rain. Little change in the trade wind
inversion height is expected Thursday through next weekend,
greatly limiting shower activity across the entire state. We will
likely see a few showers pop over the leeward slopes of the Big
Island each afternoon, with very little shower activity elsewhere.
A slight increase in windward showers is possible next weekend as
the trades gradually return.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy to strong trades will continue for the next couple of
days, as surface high pressure remains north of the area. Low cigs
and SHRA will favor windward and mauka areas with periods of MVFR
conds possible. VFR should prevail elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for windward Big Island as well as N
thru E areas of the smaller islands.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turb S
through W of terrain due to the breezy trades.
AMD NOT SKED for PMDY as equipment remains unavailable with no
time table for return to service.
AMD NOT SKED for PHLI as equipment is unavailable. Techs are
scheduled for tomorrow.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong surface ridge north of the islands will remain stationary
through Tuesday leading to strong east northeast trade winds. A
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is posted for the typical windy waters
around Maui County and the Big Island through Tuesday. On
Wednesday and Thursday, unseasonably strong low pressure rapidly
developing north of the area will weaken the high and displace
the ridge southward over the islands. Winds will respond by
becoming light and variable Thursday and Friday.
A conveyor belt set up in the south Pacific has lead to an
extended period of elevated surf along south facing shores through
potentially the first half of June with numerous swell pulses
expected, mainly from the south- southwest. The current south
swell has likely peaked and will gradually ease before additional
long period energy arrives later in the week. A High Surf
Advisory (HSA) is likely to be needed for the largest of the
swells, which may not arrive until next weekend.
A small, long-period north swell will arrive tonight and Monday,
and continue into Tuesday, with the potential for a small follow-
up swell later in the week. A small north swell is also possible
next weekend. Trade winds will continue to generate short-period
wind waves the next couple of days, leading to choppy surf along
exposed east facing shores. Wind waves will diminish significantly
after Wednesday coinciding with the light winds.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Shigesato
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
768
FXHW60 PHFO 030622
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
822 PM HST Sun Jun 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades will continue through Tuesday, before easing
Wednesday and giving way to sea and land breezes Thursday and
Friday. A wet trade wind pattern will continue tonight and early
Monday, otherwise trade wind showers will be on the decrease
through the middle of the week as a more stable airmass gradually
settles overhead. Over the Big Island however, a disturbance aloft
may allow for a thunderstorm or two to develop each afternoon
through Tuesday. Very dry conditions will overspread the islands
Thursday and linger through next weekend, greatly limiting shower
activity across the entire state.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1029 mb high is centered around 925
miles northeast of Honolulu, driving breezy trade winds across the
island chain. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy
conditions for most windward and mauka areas, with partly cloudy
skies in most leeward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered to
numerous showers affecting windward slopes and coasts, with some
of these showers spilling Leeward at times. Main short term focus
revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances.
The high to the northeast of the islands will weaken as it shifts
southeastward during the next few days, with the ridge axis then
moving over or very near the western islands Thursday and Friday.
Breezy trade winds will continue through Tuesday, before easing
into the moderate range for Wednesday. The winds are then expected
to become light and variable over the smaller islands Thursday
and Friday, allowing for daytime sea breezes and overnight land
breezes to be dominant. Meanwhile, light trades will likely hold
in the unprotected areas of the Big Island. The surface ridge axis
is forecast to shift northward next weekend, which should bring a
return and gradual strengthening of the trade winds.
As for the remaining weather details, a band of low clouds moving
into the islands this evening, will keep rather wet conditions in
place over windward slopes and coasts overnight into Monday
morning. We should see a typical reduction in trade wind shower
coverage by late morning into the afternoon hours, and instability
aloft will likely allow for a thunderstorm or two to pop over the
Big Island. Fairly typical trade wind weather should then continue
Monday night into Tuesday morning, with the trade wind inversion
then crashing down to around 5 kft greatly limiting trade wind
showers for Tuesday afternoon. Once again, instability aloft will
likely allow a thunderstorm or two to pop over the Big Island
interior during the afternoon hours. Rather dry trade wind
weather will continue Tuesday night through Wednesday night as
the trade wind inversion holds around 5 kft, with most leeward
areas not seeing any rain. Little change in the trade wind
inversion height is expected Thursday through next weekend,
greatly limiting shower activity across the entire state. We will
likely see a few showers pop over the leeward slopes of the Big
Island each afternoon, with very little shower activity elsewhere.
A slight increase in windward showers is possible next weekend as
the trades gradually return.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy to strong trades will continue for the next couple of
days, as surface high pressure remains north of the area. Low cigs
and SHRA will favor windward and mauka areas with periods of MVFR
conds possible. VFR should prevail elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for windward Big Island as well as N
thru E areas of the smaller islands.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turb S
through W of terrain due to the breezy trades.
AMD NOT SKED for PMDY as equipment remains unavailable with no
time table for return to service.
AMD NOT SKED for PHLI as equipment is unavailable. Techs are
scheduled for tomorrow.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong surface ridge north of the islands will remain stationary
through Tuesday leading to strong east northeast trade winds. A
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is posted for the typical windy waters
around Maui County and the Big Island through Tuesday. On
Wednesday and Thursday, unseasonably strong low pressure rapidly
developing north of the area will weaken the high and displace
the ridge southward over the islands. Winds will respond by
becoming light and variable Thursday and Friday.
A conveyor belt set up in the south Pacific has lead to an
extended period of elevated surf along south facing shores through
potentially the first half of June with numerous swell pulses
expected, mainly from the south- southwest. The current south
swell has likely peaked and will gradually ease before additional
long period energy arrives later in the week. A High Surf
Advisory (HSA) is likely to be needed for the largest of the
swells, which may not arrive until next weekend.
A small, long-period north swell will arrive tonight and Monday,
and continue into Tuesday, with the potential for a small follow-
up swell later in the week. A small north swell is also possible
next weekend. Trade winds will continue to generate short-period
wind waves the next couple of days, leading to choppy surf along
exposed east facing shores. Wind waves will diminish significantly
after Wednesday coinciding with the light winds.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Shigesato
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office