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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

185
FXHW60 PHFO 210131
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
331 PM HST Sun Jan 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Basically dry weather and light winds are expected over the next
several days as a ridge of high pressure lies near the area. A few
showers are possible mainly over interior and mauka areas. A front
may move down the island chain around next weekend along with an
increase in shower activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure is centered far northeast of the area with a ridge
extending west southwest to a position just north of Kauai. This
places the islands in a light southeast wind regime. Radar imagery
shows very little in the way of showers around the area and
basically dry weather is expected through tonight.

A front will be approaching the area Monday and tuesday. Winds
will remain light favoring daytime sea breezes and nighttime land
breezes as the ridge moves down over the state. Generally dry
weather is expected with just isolated showers around the area. Due
to the lack of upper levels support, the front is forecast to stall
out just to the north and west of the state Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds will remain light with overall shower activity remaining
limited.

Another front is forecast to approach the area toward the end of
the week. Timing and effects will likely be fined tuned as the
event grows nearer.

&&

.AVIATION...
The background flow is now solidly light out of the southeast as
another front approaches the area from the northwest. Some cloudiness,
but without much if anything in the way of showers, has developed
over island interiors and terrain this afternoon with VFR conditions
prevailing. Land breezes will develop for most locations tonight
as the state remains under a light wind pattern.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect, nor any expected through
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Morning ASCAT pass did indicate Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
winds across the typical windy areas under a southeast flow such
as the Hamakua coast and the South Point waters. With the front
approaching and now located just outside of the offshore waters,
the winds should shift more southerly and should result in a
gradual decrease of winds for most areas this evening and tonight.
Thus, the SCA has been cancelled with the afternoon forecast
package. As the front enters the northwest offshore waters late
tonight into Monday morning, thunderstorms will be possible over
the western offshore waters and moderate south winds will be on
the increase over the coastal waters near Kauai. The front is
expected to stall and diminish just northwest of Kauai on Monday
evening and night and may bring some scattered showers around the
western waters. A similar pattern will hold through the most of
the week as the ridge of high pressure remains in the vicinity of
the islands keeping the gradient weak, and several fronts passes
north of the state. By the end of the week, model guidance is in
good agreement with a front moving through the Hawaiian Islands,
bringing in strong gusty northerly winds.

Surf along north and west facing shores will gradually rise
Monday through Thursday as several moderate to large overlapping
northwest swells move through the Hawaiian waters. A small to
moderate northwest swell will begin to fill in through the day
Monday and will be followed by a larger advisory level swell on
Tuesday night. As this larger swell peaks Wednesday into Thursday,
another reinforcing swell will move in on Friday. Overall,
advisory level surf is looking like through much of the week
starting Tuesday night across north and west facing shores. Due to
the westerly angle of these swells, advisory level surf is also
possible for the west facing shores in Kona, Big Island.

A small increase in surf is expected along east facing shores
Wednesday into the second half of the week due to a pocket of
fresh to strong winds upstream of the state. Surf along south
facing shores will remain near the seasonal average through the
week with mainly background short-period southeast trade wind
swell energy.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BB
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Kino

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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