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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

782
FXHW60 PHFO 290136
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
336 PM HST Tue Jun 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure far north of the main Hawaiian Islands will drive
moderate to breezy trade winds across local waters through
the weekend. Clouds and showers embedded within trade flow will
favor windward and mountain areas, mainly during the overnight to
early morning hours. An upper low may briefly increase cloud and
shower coverage next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure far north of the main Hawaiian Islands
continues to drive moderate to breezy trade winds across local
waters this afternoon. Models show that trades will stay at this
strength through the rest of the forecast period. Latest
soundings show a stable airmass that remains on the dry side,
with positive lifted index values and PW in the 1.0 to 1.1 inch
range. Satellite loop shows irregular bands and patches of low
clouds embedded within trade flow, mainly upwind of the islands.
Cloud cover has generally decreased across the islands and local
waters since this morning. However, Overcast low clouds now cover
most Kona and Kau slopes of the Big island. Radar shows isolated
showers within scant clouds lingering across windward coasts.

With moderate to breezy trade winds, expect a typical trade wind
weather pattern through the forecast period. Clouds and showers
will favor windward and mountain areas, mainly at night and during
the morning hours. Cloud cover, with minimal shower activity,
will develop across leeward sections of the Big island each
afternoon, thanks to a combination of daytime heating and return
flow.

Models show an upper low will drift into the area from the
southeast by this weekend. The passage of this low may briefly
increase cloud and shower coverage this weekend as the subsidence
inversion rises and moisture increases. However, trade wind flow
will persist, possibly even strengthen, as the upper low moves by.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure far north of the islands will keep moderate to
breezy trade winds going for the next several days. AIRMET TANGO
remains in effect for low-level mechanical turbulence below 8000
feet over and downwind of island terrain due to the strong winds.

Expect mainly VFR conditions across the state, with brief MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS due to passing showers along windward and mauka areas.
Leeward Big Island will continue to see clouds and isolated
showers through this evening due to the sea breeze, but conditions
remain VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure north northeast of the state will subtly
strengthen the next couple of days and tighten the eastern
Pacific pressure gradient back toward the islands. This will
maintain moderate to fresh trades, locally strong through the
eastern island bays and channels. Thus, the Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) will remain in effect for the winder areas surrounding Maui
and Big Island through early Thursday (and likely beyond).
Significant seas will generally remain under SCA heights this
week but seas could become rough and approach advisory level
thresholds over the Alenuihaha Channel along with those waters
south of Big Island later this week.

A slight bump in today's south southwest swell has held many south
facing shore surf heights to head high, or slightly over, on face.
South surf will hold through the morning and then gradually fall
through the day Wednesday as this recent swell fades. West facing
shores will also remain steady into tomorrow morning due to a south
wrap. Surf along north shores will remain at seasonal levels, or near
flat, through the rest of the week. Strengthened trade winds will
enhance more rough, wind wave driven, waters along eastern facing
shores the next few days.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Powell
AVIATION...Foster/Ahue
MARINE...Blood

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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